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Lashkar-e-Taiba’s Terror Tentacles in the Gulf

I just published one article on the Lashkar-e-Taiba's gulf based cells and operatives who have masterminded series of recent attacks against India. The article titled,"Lashkar-e-Taiba’s Financial Network Targets India from the Gulf States" in Jamestwon Foundation's Terrorism Monitor, Vol. 7 (19), July 2, 2009.

Here is an excerpt:

An impending threat from the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) terrorist group has prompted security establishments to raise an alert along India’s western sea-coast. According to intelligence sources, the LeT’s marine wing is planning a Mumbai-type incursion to target vital installations in the three coastal states of Gujarat, Maharashtra and Goa. The group is also reported to have funneled huge amounts of money from its Gulf-based networks to fund jihad activities in India (Times of India, June 30). This is not an isolated intelligence alert. The threat emanating from the LeT was partially revealed following the recent arrest of Muhammad Omar Madni, a close associate of LeT/Jamaat-ud- Dawa chief Hafeez Muhammad Saeed. The arrest and interrogation of Madni revealed several startling details, including new routes used by terrorists, the location of bases inside and outside India, terrorist finances, and the recruitment strategy of Lashkar-e-Taiba.

...........
Besides the usual routes of intrusion in Jammu and Kashmir, LeT has managed to build alternate routes through the porous borders of Nepal and Bangladesh while establishing bases in the Gulf countries. Investigating agencies have now confirmed that LeT is working on a new strategy which involves using Dubai as the center of planning for future strikes against India (India Today, June 22). Past and ongoing terror investigations suggest the Gulf countries have been the major hubs for LeT terrorists and many terrorist plots against India are now hatched outside Pakistan’s territory.
.......
Mumbai’s crime branch probe revealed that the November 2008 Mumbai terror events were financed by LeT’s Gulf cells and Gulf-based operatives masterminded and executed a series of blasts in Indian urban centers ( Bangalore, Ahmadabad, Delhi and Surat) in 2008. These operations were carried out in collusion with militants of the Indian Mujahedeen (IM) and the proscribed Student Islamic Movement of India (SIMI).

While investigating the August 2003 twin blasts in Mumbai (car bombs at the Gateway of India and the Zaveri Bazaar), Mumbai Police unearthed a strong Dubai link. The plot was hatched by LeT’s Dubai operatives, who colluded with sleeper cells in Hyderabad, Ernakulum and Chennai. The blasts were claimed by an unknown group—the “Gujarat Muslim Revenge Force” (GMRF)—one of the many groups set up by SIMI and LeT following the 2002 Gujarat communal riots to avenge atrocities perpetrated against the Muslim community (Press Trust of India, October 10, 2003). Hanif, one of the Lashkar militants arrested in connection with the blasts, reportedly told police about the planning, logistics and targets of the LeT’s GMRF wing. Since 1993, Hanif worked in Dubai as an electrician and was sent to Mumbai in September 2002 to organize and execute the attacks. Police also interrogated Hanif about his ties to Basheer, a fugitive SIMI figure who fled to Sharjah in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and one Abu Hamza, affiliated to Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) (Frontline [Chennai], September 13-26, 2003).

The recent spurt of terror activities by the LeT in India has a direct connection to contributions from the Gulf-based cells that have planned and financed most of the group’s operations. The LeT’s Gulf based networks are becoming the lifeline for LeT/JuD operations in Pakistan and India. With this threat in view, India is now seeking a comprehensive anti-terrorism treaty with the Gulf nations. For now, Madani and Nawaz’s confessions have provided investigating agencies an outline of the shape of things to come regarding the LeT’s plans for terrorist operations in India.

For Complete Issue, Read Here.

NEFA Foundation: AQIM Threatens Attacks on France over Veil Controversy

The NEFA Foundation has obtained a new communique from Al-Qaida Committee in the Islamic Maghreb threatening to carry out terrorist attacks against France in revenge for the recent decision by the French government to ban the niqab (a full body veil worn by some conservative Muslim women). According to the statement, titled "France: the Mother of All Evils," "the mujahideen in the land of the Islamic Maghreb have sworn an oath to Allah, not to keep silent in the face of this provocative repression, and we will avenge the honor of our sisters and daughters, targeting France and its interests in every way we can, in every place we can and at every time we can, until France abandons its tactics of repression and insolence."

An English translation of the AQIM communique can be downloaded from the NEFA Foundation website.

Hizb ut-Tahrir America Conference Update: HTA Books Grand Ballroom at Chicago Area Hilton

Hizb ut-Tahrir America (HTA) has booked the Hilton in Oak Lawn, IL for the "Fall of Capitalism & Rise of Islam" conference, according to an update on their Khilafah Conference web site. HTA was forced to find another venue at which to hold their conference after the original venue, the Aqsa School in Bridgeview, Illinois canceled. The Aqsa School's business manager told a CBS News reporter that the representatives of HTA had "misrepresented themselves and the event" and the school did not "want to be in the middle of something like that."

According to the announcement on the HTA conference web site, the conference will still be held on July 19th, from 11 am to 5 pm, as originally planned.

The Hilton Oak Lawn reservations department does not have any record of guest rooms held under the name "Hizb ut-Tahrir," or "Khilafah Conference," or "Fall of Capitalism & Rise of Islam." The Hilton's catering department, which keeps a record of the organizations that have booked event spaces at the hotel, was not open at the time of the publication of this article; therefore, it cannot be determined at this time whether HTA booked under its own name or if it has used a cover name to reserve the Grand Ballroom. *** UPDATE: 7/2/09 - Hizb ut-Tahrir reserved the banquet space at the hotel under its own name and apparently did not find it necessary to use a cover name. ***

For more information on HTA and the Khilafah Conference, please see my recent posts on the Counterterrorism Blog.

How the FBI Broke Saddam - Part 4 (Epilogue)

Three months into interrogating Saddam Hussein, the FBI had heard no bombshells. There had been no startling boasts by Iraq’s ousted president of ordering the Kurds in northern Iraq to be gassed, nor had he bragged of sending his thugs to slaughter Shi’a in the south to quash the uprising that followed the first Gulf war.

But the more the FBI confronted him with its painstakingly-gathered evidence - documents, videos, witnesses and interrogations of other regime detainees - the harder it had been for Saddam to lie, spin or obfuscate. By May 2004, he was still defiant - but the chinks in his armor were noticeable.

He admitted as a point of pride that he was “responsible” for everything his regime did, good or bad.

FBI Agent George Piro had mostly kept Saddam in the dark about current events, forcing him to reckon with the hell he brought on his own people. Now it was time to show the ex-dictator he was no longer in charge of anything more than his own thoughts. Now it was time to humiliate him over his failures. Only then would he come clean about what propelled the U.S. and Iraq into war, agents reasoned.

In the FBI’s 21st interrogation session, Saddam asked what was making headlines. He was told Iraq had signed a new constitution, was about to regain its sovereignty, had a new all-Iraqi Governing Council and that elections were on the way. None of that made him happy, according to the Bureau’s files.

Next came intense discussions about Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction. “Iraq does not have any WMD and has not for some time,” the FBI reported back to Washington, summing up Saddam’s responses. (Charles Duelfer - who had taken over the WMD hunt from the CIA’s David Kay in January - was coming up just as empty as his predecessor.)

Why had he rejected UN weapons inspections and defied President Bush? Saddam’s answer - one never seriously considered inside the Beltway before the 2003 invasion - was shockingly credible. “Even though Hussein claimed Iraq did not have WMD, the threat from Iran was the major factor as to why he did not allow the return of the UN inspectors,” the FBI reported.

Read my full post - with FBI source documents - on Saddam's WMD and Al Qaeda explanations at the New York Daily News' Mouth of the Potomac Blog.

The Bolivarian-Islamist Narrative in Latin America and its Dangers

Yesterday I participated in a Hudson Institute event on Populism, Islamism and "Indigenism" versus Democracy in Latin America. What came into focus there was the joint narrative of the Bolivarian populist governments (Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, Nicaragua) and radical Islamists, led by Iran.

It is hard, on the surface, to imagine what a secular revolution that allows women on the beach in bikinis, salsa music, racy soap operas and rum has in common with a theocracy that tolerates none of those things and believes that divine law should rule the world.

One of the primary unifying threads in the joint narrative is the utopian vision that a human system can be devised that will bring justice and peace. Hence, from this vision, both groups construct a narrative of heroic battling against the earthly forces of evil and corruption, and both have chosen the United States as its primary enemy, followed closely by other liberal democracies that, in their view, have failed to live up to the utopian ideals.

This is where, as I have written about before, the joint fascination with asymmetrical warfare and its desirability meshes with the larger story line. Both sides view themselves as small powers taking on vast world powers, a David and Goliath narrative that imbues a sense of inevitable ultimate victory with the need to find the weapons that will lead to the defeat of enemy.

The keynote speaker at the Hudson event, Spanish parliamentarian Gustavo de Arístegui, has written that those in this alliance, whether secular or religious, view themselves as "legitimate soldiers in an heroic battle within the context of an asymmetrical war of liberation. It is a theory that justifies any kind of violence, including terrorism, if it is used against the most powerful countries, the repressive forces of the West."

This view of the heroism of the actions is in part what gives such a dangerously romantic view of suicide bombings, as espoused in the book Chavez has adopted as official military doctrine: Peripheral Warfare and Revolutionary Islam: Origins, Rules and Ethics of Asymmetrical Warfare (Guerra Periferica y el Islam
Revolucionario: Orígenes, Reglas y Ética de la Guerra Asimétrica) by the Spanish politician and ideologue Jorge Verstrynge. I have written about that more extensively in a previous post.

There is little doubt that this tactical alliance would shatter if either side were to gain significant ground. The Islamists have shown, particularly in the Iranian revolution that was viewed initially by many as triumph of secular, reformist forces, that it will eat the young revolutionaries for lunch.

But for now, the common view of the struggle against the West, bound by a narrative both can offer as an explanation for their actions, is sufficient. The common enemy is there, and the weapons for the struggle can be obtained.

One of the dangers of this narrative is not just the seduction it holds for messianic leaders like Chavez in Venezuela and Ahmadinejad in Iran, but the lure it holds for non-state armed groups like the FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia), who increasingly find themselves isolated and without a coherent reason to continue the revolution.

Chavez's willingness to embrace and help write this narrative means that he has shared with his allies in the FARC, and why his pro forma protestations of not supporting the revolutionary cause are meaningless, and will remain so. The FARC needs to articulate a reason for its continuation in the armed struggle. The narrative not only offers that, but well-trained allies (Hezbollah particularly) who can help them advance once a common agenda is established. And that is truly alarming.
(NOTE: My personal site is still under attack. Apologies).

How the FBI Broke Saddam - Part 3

Saddam Hussein loved to talk - and to b.s. his sole interrogator, FBI Supervisory Special Agent George Piro.

But, as we first reported in the New York Daily News in 2007, Piro - backed up by a team of FBI agents and crack CIA analysts - knew Saddam’s history too well. Where there were gaps, Piro was able to parry with the imprisoned leader to get credible answers. “High Value Detainee-1” was soon blabbing so freely it was hard for him to keep his lies intact.

Once secret FBI files on the Saddam interrogations, which I have been reporting the past week, show that as the weeks wore on Saddam opened up more and more. The FBI-CIA team leveraged its strategy to “overwhelm” - and break - Saddam by confronting the deposed dictator with evidence of his crimes against humanity.

He was soon boasting of terrible misdeeds against his own people - in order to set the historical record straight, which Piro had encouraged.

On Mar. 21, 2004, the FBI team in Baghdad reported they had conducted 16 interviews of Saddam and a dozen with his former henchmen, including ex-foreign minister Tariq Aziz and a death-dealing thug nicknamed “Chemical Ali.” Noting Saddam’s willingness to engage in “dialogue, not an interrogation,” the FBI’s Baghdad agents told Washington that Piro spent several sessions “discussing non-threatening topics,” and that Saddam felt relaxed enough “to talk freely and to boast of past accomplishments.”

But Saddam also quit eating in some unexplained protest, the FBI memo said - though he had grown so dependant on the G-man providing for all his needs that “Hussein announced he was ending his hunger strike for the benefit of SSA Piro.”

“As the rapport and dependency between Hussein and SSA Piro continues to grow, more complex topics are being introduced into the interviews,” such as detailed questions about gassing Kurds in northern Iraq and suppressing the 1991 Shi’a uprising, the once-secret memo reported.

“In the past, Hussein would have refused to discuss these topics. However, he has increasingly allowed himself to be drawn into discussions… [due] to the non-threatening manner in which they are being posed,” the FBI file said.

More on how the FBI needled Saddam into confessing his crimes in my full post at the Daily News' Mouth of the Potomac Blog.

Swat Analysis: Focus Shifts to Waziristan, Taliban Reaches Muzaffarabad

'Swat Analysis’ is a Daily brief on the resurgent Taliban and their safe sanctuaries in Pakistan. The brief focuses on the developments in Swat province, NWPF and other Taliban hotspots. This is the concluding brief.

The Pakistani army has initiated military offensive code named “Rah-e- Nijat” in Waziristan to quell terrorist movement there, after flushing out Taliban/TNSM militants from Swat and Malakand region. The government claimed that military operation in Swat is nearing end. However, on the ground, the operation “ Rah-e-Rast” is far from over in Malakand region as security forces are still holding search and sweep operations in Swat and Dir areas. In Upper Dir’s Ghazi Gai area, Taliban and local militias are still confronting each other. It is believed that most of the senior Taliban leaders operating in Swat have either fled to Waziristan or crossed the border to Afghanistan.

Started since Mid June, the ongoing Waziristan operation targets Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan chief Baitullah Mehsud and his band of terrorists, including suspected al Qaeda leaderships hiding in the area. In the latest wave of operations in Ladha and Wana in South Waziristan, Taliban hideouts were targeted. In North Waziristan also security forces are engaged with Taliban militants who have been resorting to ambush tactics on security convoys and IED attacks recently. While the military engaged in shelling Taliban/al Qaeda hideouts there, the government has offered millions of rupees as head money for any information on Mehsud and his accomplices from South Waziristan, Bajaur, Mohmand, and Darra Adamkhel. The other Taliban leaders with head money were identified as Molvi Faqir, Abdul Wali, Qari Shakeel, Hakimullah Mehsud and Qari Hussain.

Taliban’s 'Ustad-e-Fidayeen' Qari Hussain, a close aide of Baitullah Mehsud and chief trainer for suicide bombers, was reportedly among many killed in US drone attacks in South Waziristan recently. However, there is no confirmation as such about his death till now.

The intra-fighting within Taliban leaderships emerged when Turkistan Bhittani, a dissident Taliban militant commander has spoken out against TTP’s Baitullah Meshud. Much before Bhittani’s resentment, another dissident Taliban commander Qari Zainuddin raised the standard of revolt. He was later killed by Baitullah’s followers in Dera Ismail Khan.

Taliban’s tentacles reached Pakistan Administered Kashmir (PAK) last week when a suicide bomber blew himself up targeting an army vehicle in Muzaffarabad, in an apparent retaliation of June 23 drone (U.S. unmanned aerial vehicles) attacks in South Waziristan. For the first time Taliban forces marked their presence in PAK region which traditionally dominated by ‘Kashmir-India- Centric’ terrorist outfits like HIzbul Mujahidin, Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish- e- Muhammad.

Pakistan’s Interior Minister Rehman Malik in an interview indicated that Swat like situation might arise in south Punjab where a fleeing Taliban could take shelter. Meanwhile, in the latest search operations around Punjab province, Pakistan security forces have arrested nearly 40 suspected terrorists from various parts of the Punjab province as part of a countrywide crackdown. From the capital Islamabad, at least 25 pro-Taliban militants were arrested who were plotting attacks against vital installations and Embassies and security establishments. In Karachi, city police managed to bust a Taliban hideout and neutralized five close associates of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan Chief Baitullah Mehsud in a shootout near Gadap town.

It seems the war against Taliban forces in Pakistan will be long and winding one. The war in Swat province may be over soon, but for now, Islamabad administration is more concerned about the spill-over Taliban forces who might take shelters in or trying to regroup in volatile Waziristan, or Punjab and exterminating the top Taliban leadership there.

Previous Briefs on Swat Operation and Anti-Taliban offensive in Pakistan:

1."Taliban Retaliation, Tribal Backlash and 'Greater Pakhtunistan' Buzz" (June 7, 2009)
2."Rampaging Taliban Militants Spread Chaos Across Pakistan" (May 31, 2009)
3."Rah-e-Rast, Desperate Taliban and Divided Elites" ( May 20, 2009)
4."War, Disintegration and other Narratives" (May 5, 2009)
5. "Keeping an Eye on the Resurgent Taliban" (April 27, 2009)

How the FBI Broke Saddam - Part 2

Saddam Hussein was defiant in his first meetings with his American captors. But soon it was time to begin whittling down his ego, bloated by decades of absolute power in Iraq. Brute force, however, was not in the gameplan.

By mid-February 2004, FBI Supervisory Special Agent George Piro had sat down with Saddam Hussein three times - as I reported exclusively for the New York Daily News on Friday - and listened to the toppled tyrant yap away about his great accomplishments leading ragtag Iraq out of the Stone Age.

The FBI prides itself on “rapport-based” interrogations that have a high success rate for yielding confessions from the likes of 1993 World trade Center bomber Ramzi Yousef and CIA headquarters killer Mir Aimal Kasi. There was no “ticking bomb” scenario with Saddam - just inherent political pressure - so the interrogation proceeded carefully and cautiously over months.

The strategy involved executing a subtle emotional attack, digging out Saddam’s soft spots and exploiting them. Prick his ego.

Saddam had revealed little, so far - and neither had Piro - other than stating he remained in Baghdad until the day before his capital fell to American-led forces in April 2003. He said he instructed his henchmen in a final meeting, “We will struggle in secret.” After fleeing Baghdad, he gradually dispersed his bodyguards one by one to avoid drawing Coalition forces’ attention. Saddam had evaded capture for nine months, until U.S. viceroy Paul Bremer made his famous exultation in December 2003: “Ladies and gentleman, we got him!”

Piro asked if Saddam ever used body doubles, as was widely believed. “No, of course not,” he scoffed. “This is movie magic, not reality.”

But as the fourth interrogation began on Feb. 13, Saddam wanted answers from Piro.

“Let me ask a direct question. I want to ask where … has the information been going? For our relationship to remain clear, I want to know,” he demanded. Piro replied that he was a “representative of the U.S. Government” and told Saddam many U.S. officials saw his reports, and that readership “may include the President of the United States.” Saddam seemed pleased, commenting that he did “not mind” if the interviews were published.

Piro turned to Saddam’s WMD stockpiles but his quarry brushed it off, saying, “We destroyed them. We told you… By God, if I had such weapons, I would have used them in the fight against the U.S.” Hadn’t Saddam’s own decision to defy the UN on WMD inspections led to crippling sanctions and then a war that ousted him from power? “This is your opinion. I answered,” the stonewaller said. “We (Iraqis) are among the few remaining cavaliers.”

Read my full post on how the FBI began to whittle away at Saddam’s ego - as well as the FBI source documents - at the Daily News' Mouth of the Potomac Blog.

Hizb ut-Tahrir America Conference Venue Cancels

The Aqsa School is unwilling to play host to Hizb ut-Tahrir America's (HTA) Khilafah Conference, according to an announcement that has been posted on HTA's Khilafah Conference 2009 web site. The event was scheduled for Sunday, July 19th.

The Aqsa School, an Islamic school located in Bridgeview, Illinois, was announced as the conference venue in the promotional video that was released by HTA earlier this month. The HTA conference web site provides no further explanation for the cancellation. The Aqsa School web site does not mention the Khilfafah Conference-- officially titled "Fall of Capitalism and Rise of Islam"-- or the subsequent cancellation.

It is possible that the school did not welcome the association with HTA, which adheres to extremist Islamist ideology. It is also possible that the board and administrators of the school anticipated unwelcome attention from the public and government officials as a result of hosting the conference.

HTA intends to find a new venue in which to hold the conference, according to the conference web site. Now that HTA has come out publicly, and is thus openly linked to the Khilafah Conference concept, it may be difficult for it to find a venue willing to host the event.

To read more about HTA's history, and its transition from covert to public operating status, please see my recent post on the Counterterrorism Blog.

Iran Sanctions: Still A Viable Option?

Earlier this month I had the opportunity to address a Canadian House of Commons Foreign Relations Subcommittee concerning the potential use and impact of sanctions on Iran and its quest for nuclear weapons. This oral testimony can be found here. At that time we were all awaiting the outcome of the Iranian Presidential elections and there was much speculation that a significant change might be in the offing. The outcome of those elections did effect change, but few could have predicted the context or direction those changes took.

We are now faced with an even more dangerous Iran – An Iran in the throes of a domestic upheaval that has illegitimized the government as representative of the Iranian people, hardened its position vis a vis the outside world, and made productive dialogue with Iran’s current leaders a virtual impossibility. What Western government leader would, in the present context, now be willing to engage with, and thereby strengthen and re-legitimize the Ahmadinejad administration and his Mullah regime overseers?

Yet, through all the turmoil in Iran there is no indication that those now ruling Iran have indicated any willingness to change course, or slow down their unmonitored uranium enrichment and their daily advances toward nuclear weapons capability. Each day brings Iran closer to that irreversible point after which Iran’s neighbors, and the rest of the world, must consider Iran to be nuclear weapons capable. It is that point that risks setting off an unstoppable proliferation of nuclear weapons programs in the Middle East, and beyond.

If dialogue with the current Iranian regime is not now possible, other options must be pursued. And the one option that stands out is for the West to apply significant sanctions pressure against the Ahmadinejad regime, and the mullahs, IRGC and other quasi military forces that are upholding it. We don’t need a UN Security Council resolution to accomplish this. But, we do need our European allies and friends, and other countries opposed to what is going on in Iran to join us in apply such measures. Europe remains the key. Western Europe alone accounts for Iran’s largest slice of trade and largest sources of revenues. Together we must impress also on the UAE, and especially Dubai, that it can no longer do business as usual with Iran with regard to circumventing sanctions Iran, or providing Iran’s corrupt leaders a safe place to deposit their money.

Let’s be clear. The low-impact sanctions now on the table simply will not work. We need to move forward now on putting in place sanctions that really target Iran’s political and economic vulnerabilities – the elements that can truly heighten the stress on its leaders. These vulnerabilities include Iran’s fragile financial system, Iran’s energy sector, Iran’s transportation and communication sector, and Iran’s elite investment entities..

Iran’s leaders will only change course if and when they are convinced that the international community will, in fact, take the steps necessary to deprive them of the resources they depend on to retain their positions of power and authority, or that they have squirreled away. Iran’s Mullahs and favored business leaders must be made to feel the pinch of sanctions. So far they have enjoyed a free ride, and with corruption running high throughout Iran’s ruling circles, there is quite a bit of their money outside Iran that could and should be frozen.

Europe, Japan and Canada should be convinced to join with us now also in cutting off Iran’s access to high tech items, including potentially dual-use, equipment and expertise. Together, we must put Dubai and the freeport of Jebel Ali on notice that we will no longer countenance their acting as intermediaries for transshipments of such goods to Iran.

With a daily consumption of more than 18 million gallons of gasoline Iran must now import some 180 to 200 million gallons of gasoline per month. The availability of gasoline exports to Iran should be curtailed. Rising petroleum prices have already been the cause of civil unrest, and gasoline shortages could have a significant impact on local business activity and put increased pressure on Iranian leaders to alter course.
Europe, Canada and Japan should also act restrict Iranian ship access to their ports, and refuse to insure or re-insure, or at least impose extra premiums on insuring, Iranian ships and cargoes.

Travel restrictions on Iran’s leaders should also be broadened, and cultural, sporting and scientific exchanges with Iran curtailed.

These are examples of measure that can be taken now to convince Iran we mean business. These are the kind of measures that give us our last best chance of heading off a graver crisis just a few years down the road.

Can Hezbollah Launch Long-Range Terror Attacks?

In his new book Homeland Security, Assessing the First Five Years, former DHS secretary Michael Chertoff argues:

Al-Qaeda and its network are our most serious immediate threat, they may not be our most serious long-term threat….[Hezbollah] has developed capabilities that Al-Qaeda can only dream of, including large quantities of missiles and highly sophisticated explosives.

Hezbollah may be the 'A-Team of Terrorists' and maybe al-Qaeda is actually the 'B' team.

In 1992, exactly one month after Israel assassinated Hezbollah Secretary-General Abbas al-Musawi, the Israeli Embassy in Buenos Aires was bombed. Two years later, on July 18, 1994 Hezbollah bombed the Jewish communal offices in Buenos Aires, at least partially in response to Israel’s capture of Hezbollah leader Mustafa Dirani on May 21 and a bombing of a Hezbollah training camp on June 2.

In contrast, it has been almost a year and a half since Hezbollah terror master-mind Imad Mughniyeh was assassinated. Hezbollah has threatened revenge against Israel for the assassination of Mughniyeh. But attempts to kidnap Israeli tourists and bomb the Israeli embassy in Baku have been foiled. Azerbaijan borders Iran and Iran has a very large Azerbaijani population, so Hezbollah and its IRGC allies should have had a relatively easy time carrying out an attack.

Has Hezbollah’s ability to launch an attack deteriorated, or is it merely biding its time? In and of itself, this is an important question – but it achieves even greater significance in light of the unstable situation in Iran. One constraint on Western action is the concern of long-range terror by Hezbollah and its allies in the IRGC. If that threat is not be as significant as previously assessed, then one barrier to action is lowered.

Read the full post here.

How the FBI Broke Saddam - Part 1

Where were Iraq’s WMD? How close was Saddam Hussein to Al Qaeda, really?

These were vital - but still unanswered - questions when the Iraqi despot was yanked out of a spider hole in December 2003 and placed in U.S. military detention. Lives were at stake - along with the entire political rationale for the U.S.-led coalition invading Iraq. Only one man could say for sure, and now that the U.S. finally had him in custody, they had to find out.

There was only one way: Break Saddam.

The FBI’s newly-declassified interrogation files on Saddam Hussein, reported exclusively in yesterday’s New York Daily News, stand in contrast to the dark view espoused by Team Bush: extreme interrogation techniques extract confessions from “high-value” detainees who resist questioning.

The CIA and FBI were intent on getting Saddam to explain what happened to the missing weapons of mass destruction, his operational ties - if any - to Al Qaeda and admit his own crimes against humanity by gassing and slaughtering his own people. CIA WMD hunter David Kay had resigned in frustration in late January 2004, and the missing arsenal was vexing Team Bush just as special prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald was beginning his probe of the White House over leaks in retaliation against Iraq war critic Joe Wilson.

The pressure was intense.

A young, Arabic-speaking, Lebanese-American FBI agent named George Piro was picked to get Saddam to confess. Detailed interrogation plans were drawn up, and Piro sat down with one of the most brutally ruthless world leaders of the late 20th century, prepared to play mental chess with a master of manipulation, whose intelligence ranged from cunning street smarts to quirky political intuition.

The first FBI interrogation of Saddam Hussein al-Tikriti - in a program codenamed “Desert Spider” - took place Feb. 7, 2004, in a dingy cell at Baghdad International Airport. Memos obtained by The News through a 2006 Freedom of Information Act request for Saddam’s file show that top FBI and Justice Department officials had decided Feb. 6 not to read high-value detainees Miranda rights or to identify interrogators to detainees in any way other than as “representatives of the United States Government” or “U.S. Government agents.” Saddam assumed Piro was a top Bush aide - not a low-ranking street agent.

Sizing up the G-man, Saddam observed that Piro (an FBI supervisory special agent) was “smart,” and predicted, “Perhaps a conversation between two such educated people will not be useful or successful.” He decreed that it was only important to him what people say or think about him “in the future, 500 or 1,000 years from now.”

The ex-leader ranted about all he had done for Iraq, which “barely had anything” when he came to power in a bloodbath 40 years ago. Piro asked if he had ever failed in his decades as Iraq’s leader, but Saddam countered, “Do you think I would tell my enemy if I made a mistake?”

His ego as yet undiminished by captivity, Saddam gloated that “the only political parties existing in Iraq are the ones with the weapons” - a reference to the growing lethality of the Sunni insurgency - and said it made no difference what anybody thought about him. “Hussein believes people will love him more after he passes away than they do now,” Piro wrote in his first FBI “302” report back to Washington.

Read my complete post on how the FBI broke Saddam Hussein and the original FBI interrogation reports at the Daily News' Mouth of the Potomac Blog.

Palestinian Militants in Gaza Split with the Global Islamic Media Front (GIMF)

The NEFA Foundation has obtained and translated a new statement from the Army of Islam (a.k.a. Jaish al-Islam) in the Gaza Strip -- a Palestinian Islamic militant faction opposed to Hamas -- announcing that it is withdrawing from a mutual agreement with the online jihadi logistical support group known as the Global Islamic Media Front (GIMF). The Palestinian faction refused to explain the reasons for its decision, citing its desire to avoid controversy and quarreling between Muslims.

For more on the GIMF and the Army of Islam, see NEFA Senior Investigator Evan Kohlmann’s interactive chart, titled “Al-Qaida’s Online Couriers."

NEFA Foundation: Transcript of Shaykh Mustafa Abu al-Yazid’s Al-Jazeera Interview

The NEFA Foundation has obtained a transcript of an Arabic-language interview Shaykh Mustafa Abu al-Yazid (a.k.a. “Shaykh Saeed”) gave to Al-Jazeera television on June 22, 2009. Asked about Pakistani nuclear weapons, Abu al-Yazid replied, "Allah-willing the nuclear weapons will not fall in the hand of the Americans, and the Muslims take them [weapons] and use them against the Americans Allah-willing.” Commenting on Hezbollah, he said, “Hezbollah, we do not consider it an Islamic Party and it is a rejectionist party as you know, and its loyalty is towards Iran…a complete loyalty. There is no relationship between us and them, and what we mean is the mujahideen from the people of Sunna like Fatah al-Islam in Lebanon; they are the ones we commend and the likes of them.” And addressing Iran, he stated, "Regarding Iran, we consider it a state of hypocrisy and schism, and it is the state that appears Muslim and claims Islam but in fact it fights the Muslims."

The English transcript can be downloaded from the NEFA Foundation website.

State of Play VI: Malevolent Mashups

I had the pleasure of hosting the Security and Surveillance panel discussion at the State of Play VI conference at New York Law School last week. The panel was designed to try and explore ideas around security and surveillance in virtual worlds. While the overall title of the conference was 'plateau' the feeling on the panel was that constant innovation within and outside of virtual worlds would continue to create new security challenges. Michael Schrage coined the phrase 'Malevolent Mashups', which seemed to describe the future challenge.

Blog of the panel can be found here.

Have the Islamists won in Algeria?

For the past month, Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) has perpetrated numerous terror acts including two major attacks against Algerian policemen: one that killed 24 on June 18 and another one that killed 6 on June 22.
While the military aspect of the Algerian regime's fight against Islamists has been well covered, another aspect of this fight has been left in the dark.
In a piece in today's Examiner I make the point that the Islamists have widely penetrated Algerian society.
You can read my whole article here.
Here is an excerpt:

Algeria may be winning the military battle against Islamists, but it’s losing the ideological war. Over the last 10 years, Algeria’s efforts to root out terrorist elements have been undermined by Algerian society’s increasing tolerance of Islamists’ intolerance.

A March 2009 study by the Algiers-based women’s rights group Ciddef documents the regression of Algerian society especially when it comes to the condition of women.

For example, today only 16 percent of Algerians favor the equality of sexes, compared with 27 percent in 2000. And 70 percent of Algerians would like every Algerian woman and girl alike to wear the hijab. Nadia Ait Zai, Ciddef’s founder, explains, “Women are paying the price of ten years of Islamist pressure.”

The proof of this pressure can be seen in the soaring number of young girls throughout Algeria wearing the hijab. For example, the mother of a 6-year old girl in Dergana explained that at the beginning of the school year, her little girl came back from school with a hijab.

When asked by her mother, who does not wear the hijab, why she was doing this, the child replied, “But it’s a duty! God asked us to do so! … And you are a kafra [infidel], God will make sure you will suffer in hell.”

FBI Replaces Brotherhood Tainted Liaison with Brotherhood Tainted Liaison

A top FBI official met Wednesday with the vice president of the Islamic Society of North America, a move which followed the Bureau's decision "to use ISNA as their official point of contact with the American Muslim community," an email from an intelligence community veteran that was widely distributed Wednesday said.

The FBI has not yet commented on the claim. But the IPT has confirmed that the meeting did take place at FBI headquarters. The decision to make ISNA the FBI's contact point came over the objections of case agents and supervisors investigating Muslim Brotherhood activity in the U.S.

Last year, the FBI cut off outreach communication with the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), after evidence in the Hamas-support trial against the Holy Land Foundation for Relief and Development (HLF) raised questions "whether there continues to be a connection between CAIR or its executives and HAMAS." The FBI's case agent testified that CAIR was a Hamas front.

Like CAIR, ISNA was an unindicted co-conspirator in the HLF trial. It is listed among "who are and/or were members of the US Muslim Brotherhood." Jamal Badawi, an ISNA board member, also was named as an unindicted co-conspirator, listed among people who raised money for HLF.

The evidence involving ISNA, however, was not as deep as it was with CAIR. In CAIR's case, its founders are included on a telephone list for members of a secret Hamas support network in the U.S. created by the Muslim Brotherhood. And they participated in a 1993 meeting of Hamas members and supporters called to discuss ways to thwart U.S.-led peace efforts between Israel and the Palestinians.

In that weekend-long meeting, CAIR co-founder Omar Ahmad discussed ways to mislead Americans about their goals and ideology. Executive Director Nihad Awad discussed media strategies to help the cause.

In the evidence admitted by the court, ISNA officials were not named among members of the Hamas support network, called the Palestine Committee. But FBI investigative records show it held a significant role in the Brotherhood's U.S. activities. According to an FBI memorandum from the 1980s obtained via the Freedom of Information Act, past "ISNA conferences provided opportunities for the extreme fundamentalist Muslims to meet with their supporters ... The annual conferences are used for both religious and political purposes. The political purpose is to further the Islamic Revolution, which includes providing anti-U.S. and Israel publications and publications that support the war effort of Iran in the Iran-Iraq war."

The Brotherhood is an 80-year-old Egyptian movement which seeks to spread the rule of Shariah, or Islamic law, throughout the world. But some top FBI officials are not convinced the Brotherhood is a problem, a law enforcement source said Thursday. This, despite the fact that FBI investigation has uncovered documents showing the U.S. Brotherhood's goal is "a kind of grand Jihad in eliminating and destroying the Western civilization from within and "sabotaging" its miserable house by their hands and the hands of the believers so that it is eliminated and God's religion is made victorious over all other religions."

The problem, the source said, is too many FBI officials have developed friendly individual relationships with the leadership of groups like ISNA. "As an FBI agent, we use facts and evidence and truth to base our decisions and not because we went to dinner with someone."

ISNA's roots in the Brotherhood are clearly established. Internal Muslim Brotherhood records in evidence the HLF trial show ISNA was created by Muslim Brotherhood members in the U.S. who had been leaders of the Muslim Students Association. In addition, the Chicago Tribune and federal prosecutors in Dallas have documented the link.

Read our full post on the ISNA-FBI developments here.

Terrorist Financing on the Internet

Since the September 11 attacks on the United States, al-Qaeda has come under growing international pressure. In response, the terrorist organization has increasingly relied on the internet to spread its message and gain support throughout the world. While its use of the internet for propaganda and recruiting purposes has received wide publicity, al-Qaeda has also utilized the internet for a variety of other purposes, including terrorist financing. Al-Qaeda is far from alone among terrorist organizations in exploiting the internet for financing. A wide range of other terrorist groups -- including Hamas, Lashkar-i-Tayyiba and Hizballah -- have also used the internet to raise and transfer needed funds to support their activities.

The internet offers broad reach, timely efficiency, as well as a certain degree of anonymity and security for both donors and recipients. Although governments throughout the world now recognize that the internet is an increasingly valuable tool for terrorist organizations, the response has been inconsistent. For the United States and its allies to effectively counter this dangerous trend, they will have to prioritize their efforts in this area in the years to come.

Click here to rest the rest of this article, which was published in the June issue of "The Sentinel," the West Point Counterterrorism Center's monthly journal.

More Terrorists Arrests in Indonesia

With a presidential election slated for 8 July, the Indonesian security forces have recently gone into overdrive while making a series of arrests of terrorist suspects. Over the past couple of days, the police counter-terrorist unit, Special Detachment 88, has detained two radicals believed to be Singaporean nationals. The first, Syamsul Anwar alias Somad bin Soba, was arrested in Bandar Lampung, Lampung province. The second, Husaini, who had been living in Malang, East Java province, was picked up while en route to Central Java.

Both were thought to have infiltrated into Indonesia in 2002 along with Slamat Kasteri, a Jemaah Islamiyah terrorist who escaped from a Singaporean prison last year and was re-captured in Malaysia on 1 April. Along with Kasteri, the two men arrested in Indonesia this past week were thought to have been tied to an aborted plot to bomb Changi International Airport in Singapore.

Residents near Syamsul Anwar’s house in Bandar Lampung expressed shock over his reported ties to terrorism. He was said to spend his time driving a pedicab and attending prayer sessions at a local mosque.

Also arrested in Indonesia this past week was Syaifudin Zuhry in Cilacap, Central Java. Zuhry was reported tailed for months and is thought to be closely tied to JI fugitive Noordin Top.

West Africa in the New Cocaine Pipeline

Yesterday the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee's Subcommittee on Africa held what Chairman Russ Feingold (D-Wisconsin) called a wake up call on the growing threat of cocaine trafficking through West Africa.

I testified there on the ties of the emerging groups in West Africa to the FARC and my fellow CTB contributor Michael Braun testified as well.

I think it is a tremendously important development because, in the end, there are two major consequences for the United States: the money from that trade will strengthen the criminal pipelines in our hemisphere because most of the money comes back here and; the human cost of putting that much new money into the existing criminal pipelines in a region where there has already been horrendous violence surrounding far less valuable commodities.

The amount of money in play here is enormous, particularly given the weak state of governments, civil society, law enforcement, the judiciary etc. There is little that can be done to avert the wholesale implosion of the region.

One of the reasons for this is the dismal state of governance in West Africa is that since the early 1990s the region has suffered a series of conflicts centered on natural resources, particularly diamonds, timber, oil, and gold. Profits from these "honey pot" wars fueled the rise of the Revolutionary United Front (RUF) in Sierra Leone with its child soldiers and unspeakable atrocities; fed the wars sustained by Liberia's Charles Taylor; and contributed to the rampant corruption and weak or failed institutions in almost every country. These natural resources, while valuable, pale in comparison to the money the cocaine trade generates. For example, at the height of the "blood diamond" trade in Sierra Leone and Liberia, the total value of the diamonds being smuggled out was less than $200 million. The potential to fuel conflicts over the cocaine pipeline, the most lucrative commodity so far and one whose profits are several orders of magnitude larger than diamonds, is truly frightening.

Given Hezbollah's long-established presence on the ground in the region and the closeness of its operatives to that community, it is also reasonable to assume that Hezbollah and the drug traffickers, operating in the same permissive environment, will cross paths. It is precisely this type of environment that allows for the otherwise unthinkable alliances to emerge. Most are short-lived, centering on specific opportunities and operations that can benefit both groups, but others are longer lasting and more dangerous.
My full blog is here.