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RUSSIA BOMBS GEORGIA: And U.S. moves two new carrier groups to the Persian Gulf regionPosted by Joel C. Rosenberg - August 8, 2008 on 6:40 am | In Joel Rosenberg | No Comments     UPDATED: Are Russia and Georgia on the verge of all out war? Tensions have been growing for the last few years, but the situation has deteriorated rapidly in the last twenty-four hours and fighting along the border has broken out. Most serious so far: Russian fighter jets have bombed two towns in neighboring Georgia, killing and injuring innocent civilians, Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili said Friday. [At 9:35am, Fox News reported that Georgia has shot down four Russian fighter jets. An hour ago, the New York Times reported that two Russian jets had been shot down, something AP reported as well.] One critical issue to watch as the crisis develops: Who is really in charge in Moscow, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin or newly installed President Dmitry Medvedev? For the moment, it seems to be Putin who is calling the shots and speaking out most forcefully on the crisis with Georgia. Putin, of course, believes deeply in restoring the glory of Mother Russia. He certainly does not want to lose Russian territory and is determined to expand the Russian empire. As I have written about previously, he knows he cannot expand Russia westward because NATO is expanding eastward. Putin also knows he cannot expand Russia eastward because of China. He has claimed ownership of the North Pole, but the real opportunity for Russia is to expand southward, and that is where Putin has been focusing all of his attention in recent years. He is determined to control the Caucuses region, and South Ossetia -- though not a name or place most Westerners have ever heard of much less cared about -- is a key piece in Putin's southward strategy. Interestingly, a new poll finds that four times more Russians think Putin is the most powerful man in Moscow than Medvedev, and tensions between the two men have been growing all summer. The Russian bombs allegedly fell on Gori and Kareli, two towns near South Ossetia, a volatile region smaller than the size of Rhode Island with a population of less than 70,000. South Ossetia broke away from the Republic of Georgia in the early 1990s and has been controlled ever since by Moscow-backed separatists. To effectively hold the territory for themselves -- or at least keep the territory of South Ossetia from being reclaimed by Georgia, Russia sent military troops designated as "peacekeepers" into the area several years ago and provides economic support to the rebels. Now Georgian military forces have just launched a major attack on those rebels in a bid to regain control of the territory. Putin warned Georgia that her attack on South Ossetia would trigger a retaliation. Putin did not say precisely what form that retaliation would take, and as of this writing, Russia is denying that it has bombed Georgian towns. "The Georgian leadership has launched a dirty adventure," the Russian Defense Ministry said on Friday. "We will not leave our peacekeepers and Russian citizens unprotected." "Heavy weapons and artillery have been sent there, and tanks have been added," Putin told reporters this morning. "Deaths and injuries have been reported, including among Russian peacekeepers....It's all very sad and alarming. And, of course, there will be a response." The Republic of Georgia is a democratic country that wants to join NATO, remove Russian troops and military bases from its soil, allow the U.S. to build a missile defense system on its territory, and become a full-fledged ally of the West. For those very reasons, tensions between Georgia and Russia have been growing steadily. In April of this year, under intense pressure from Moscow, NATO decided not to invite Georgia and Ukraine join its 26-member alliance immediately, but promised to revisit the issue soon. This may prove to have been a serious mistake, inviting Russian provocation. Days later, Putin ordered the establishment of semi-official ties with the rebel "government" in South Ossetia, which Georgia charged was a violation of international law. A few weeks later, Russia began sending more troops to the border of South Ossetia, which NATO said was a provocation of Georgia. In July, Russian fighter jets penetrated Georgian airspace and flew a reconnaissance mission over South Ossetia in a show of force -- a warning, really -- designed to "cool hot heads in Tbilisi [the capital of Georgia]," the Kremlin said. The President of Georgia immediately recalled his ambassador from Moscow, all but cutting off diplomatic ties, to protest the aggressive Russian move. Back in September 2006, as I wrote about at the time, Russia warned of dire consequences if NATO provided arms and continued building strong ties to Georgia. In October 2006, Russian forces blockaded Georgia from air, rail and ground transportation and Putin sent the Russian navy to maneuver off Georgia's Black Sea coast. In January 2006, two explosions ripped through pipelines carrying Russian oil to the former Soviet Republic of Georgia. The blasts effectively cut off Georgia's main supply of energy amidst a brutally cold winter. The Kremlin called the sabotage acts of terrorism, but Georgian President President Saakashvili, top Georgian officials, and even a number of Western analysts were not convinced. They accused Russian intelligence of triggering the explosions to send Georgia a chilling message: don't join NATO, don't insist that Russia give up its military bases in Georgia, don't keep criticizing Putin as he re-centralizes power and rebuilds the Russian military, don't oppose Russia's application to join the World Trade Organization, stop calling for UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan to “internationalize” peacekeeping operations in the troubled southern Russian regions Abkhazia and Ossetia, and stop promoting pro-democracy movements throughout the former Soviet Union. The pipelines were eventually fixed, and oil began flowing again, but tensions were never defused. "Russian-Georgian relations have deteriorated to the point that some Kremlin officials are seriously weighing a military operation, which they hope will hand Georgia a military defeat and topple President Saakashivili," wrote Heritage Foundation Russia expert Dr. Ariel Cohen in March. Cohen quoted one veteran Russian foreign policy as saying, "It’s springtime -- a time to start a war with Georgia." Cohen noted that Kremlin political strategist Gleb Pavlovsky actually called for Saakashvili to be assassinated, and that Vladimir Zhirinovsky’s Liberal Democratic Party issued a statement in February statement saying the call for assassination should be seen as a warning to the Georgian leader. “Saakashvili is out of control, and needs to be brought to heel,” said one Kremlin insider, quoted by Cohen. “If Georgians keep quiet and behave, we may even tolerate their joining NATO, but if they are loud, we’ll take measures.” ALSO WORTH NOTING: Observers of Biblical prophecies such as Ezekiel 38 and 39 will note that directly or effectively controlling Georgia would be key when Moscow one day begins moving Russian military forces through Turkey and into Lebanon, Syria and eventually against Israel. KEY HEADLINES TO TRACK: * Jerusalem Post: '2 US aircraft carriers headed for Gulf' * Time magazine: Israel Preparing for Iran Strike (including buying 90 new long-range fighter jets and two new German submarines) * FLASHBACK: RUSSIA-GEORGIA CRISIS WORSENS: Putin begins deporting Georgians, Russian expert predicts military coup in Georgia soon (October 2006) * FLASHBACK: PUTIN THREATENS NEIGHBORING DEMOCRACY [Georgia]: How far will the new Russian Czar go? (October 3, 2006)-------------------------------------- * "60 Ways To Bless Israel At 60" * Would you consider signing up to make a monthly donation to The Joshua Fund of $25, $40 or $60? All donations are tax deductible. For more information on how to make contributions by mail -- or by secure on-line credit card transactions -- please click here. * What is The Joshua Fund? * Sign up for Flash Traffic, free email alerts from Joel C. Rosenberg * Dead Heat: A Novel (34% off at Amazon) * Epicenter: Why The Current Rumblings In The Middle East Will Change Your Future (32% off at Amazon) * Epicenter documentary film on DVD
IS WAR WITH IRAN “UNAVOIDABLE”? Yes, says the man who could be Israel’s next leaderPosted by Joel C. Rosenberg - August 6, 2008 on 10:20 pm | In Joel Rosenberg | No Comments "If Iran continues with its programme for developing nuclear weapons, we will attack it. The sanctions are ineffective." -- Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz, June 2008 Most Americans have never heard of Shaul Mofaz. But those interested in the future of the Middle East ought to take note. Mofaz is currently Israel's Deputy Prime Minister. Tuesday, he announced his candidacy to lead the Kadima Party, the party of current Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. Mofaz now squares off against Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni in Kadima's September 17th primaries. He is behind in the internal Kadima polls, but he has been gaining. Should he win next month, he will have the chance to put together a national unity government and become Israel's next premier, without having to face voters in a new round of national elections. There are five things you should know about Mofaz. First, he was born in Tehran, Iran, in 1948 before his family eventually fled to the new State of Israel when he was nine years old. Second, he is a military man, rising to become the Chief of Staff of the Israeli Defense Forces in the late 1990s under Netanyahu, and later served as Defense Minister under Ariel Sharon. Third, this native Farsi speaker says war with Iran appears to him "unavoidable," and he vows he will not allow the Jewish State to suffer "a second Holocaust." Fourth, his campaign to become Kadima's next leader -- and thus potentially Israel's next Prime Minister -- essentially boils down to this: "If Iran strikes first, or if Israel must launch a pre-emptive strike against Iran, who would you rather have as commander-in-chief, a diplomat like Tzipi Livni, or a military man like me?" Fifth, as a lifelong military leader, he is relatively new to the political arena, having been first elected to the Knesset in 2005. Yet even in this short period of time, he has been accused of flip-flopping on major political issues. As one Israeli media profile put it: "His political zigzagging was evident when he joined Kadima – a mere 48 hours after announcing to the world that the Likud was his political home forever and ever; or when he fiercely objected to the construction of the security fence – only to take charge of the operation; or when it came time to vote on the Gaza pullout – where he turned from one of the move's most adamant opponents to one of its most enthused advocates, almost overnight." That said, with the eyes of the nations increasingly on Israel and her neighbors, Shaul Mofaz is a man worth watching.
GOOD NEWS FROM THE EPICENTERPosted by Joel C. Rosenberg - August 6, 2008 on 10:46 am | In Joel Rosenberg | No Comments Good news keeps pouring out of the epicenter. Oil prices are falling. Domestic gas prices are falling. Violence in Iraq continues dropping steadily. Moqtada al-Sadr, head of the Mahdi Army, is telling his forces to lay down their arms. And the U.S. just convicted one of Osama bin Laden's closest aides in the first military trial in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. Are more tough times ahead? Undoubtedly. But let's take a moment to say a prayer of thanksgiving. Excerpts from the AP story: A military jury reached a verdict Wednesday in the first Guantanamo war crimes trial. A spokeswoman for the military tribunals said the panel of six American military officers will soon deliver the decision in the case against Osama bin Laden's former driver. Salim Hamdan, a Yemeni, faced up to a life sentence if convicted of consipiracy or supporting terrorism after the 10-day trial, which provided the first demonstration of a special tribunal system for prosecuting alleged terrorists....Hamdan was captured at a roadblock in southern Afghanistan in November 2001 and taken to Guantanamo in May 2002. The military accused him of transporting missiles for al-Qaida and helping bin Laden escape U.S. retribution following the Sept. 11 attacks by driving him around Afghanistan. Defense attorneys said he was merely a low-level bin Laden employee." ------------------------ HEADLINES WORTH TRACKING: * [FLASHBACK: Pete Wehner: Responding to George Will's Realism (from 2006)] * Iraq budget surplus could top $80 billion * WSJ: Moqtada Packs It In * Mahdi Army leader tells his forces to lay down arms * Lower Oil Prices Ignite Big Rally; Dow Is Up by 331 * CNBC: Oil Prices Could Skid Below $80 a Barrel
DEAD HEAT, AGAINPosted by Joel C. Rosenberg - August 2, 2008 on 8:57 pm | In Joel Rosenberg | No Comments Senator Barack Obama's trip to the epicenter and Europe initially produced a large bounce in the polls. But all those gains have evaporated a week later. Today, the junior Senator from Illinois and Senator John McCain of Arizona are again in a dead heat. This, despite growing economic anxieties, including the loss of nearly a half-million American jobs this year -- bringing the unemployment rate up to 5.7% -- and GM losing $15 billion-plus in just the last three months, for a total of $51 billion in losses over the past three years. The only real good news in the economy at the moment: oil prices are down nearly $20 off the year's high, settling at the moment a bit around $122 a barrel. In turn, gas prices have dropped nearly 20 cents a gallon over the past few weeks. Worth noting: at this stage in the 1988 presidential campaign, Michael Dukakis was 17 points ahead of George H.W. Bush.
OLMERT TO RESIGN AFTER SEPT. 17Posted by Joel C. Rosenberg - July 30, 2008 on 1:44 pm | In Joel Rosenberg | No Comments Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert will resign his office on or about September 17th. Suffering single digit approval ratings and haunted by numerous on-going corruption investigations, the Prime Minister just announced on national television that he will step down after the Kadima party primaries scheduled. "I have decided I won't run in the Kadima movement primaries, nor do I intend to intervene in the elections," the embattled politician said just moments ago. "When a new (Kadima party) chairman is chosen, I will resign as prime minister to permit them to put together a new government swiftly and effectively....I want to make it clear – I am proud to be a citizen of a country where the prime minister can be investigated like a regular citizen. It is the duty of the police to investigate, and the duty of the prosecution to instruct the police. The prime minister is not above the law.... From my first day in office I was forced to ward off malicious attacks, even while dealing with far-reaching decisions affecting Israel's defense and existence. I continue to believe with all my heart that the achievement of peace, combating terror, strengthening our security, and the realization of a different type of relationship with our neighbors are all necessary goals for the future of the State of Israel." It's not clear yet when new elections will be held. Former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is currently well ahead of all contenders to replace Olmert, but Israeli politics are Byzantine, to say the least, and anything could happen. Israel's political crisis could not come at a worse time, with the real threat of war with Iran growing daily.
VIOLENCE IN IRAQ CONTINUES TO DROP: Critics proved wrongPosted by Joel C. Rosenberg - July 30, 2008 on 9:13 am | In Joel Rosenberg | No Comments Remember all the nattering nabobs of negativism saying all was lost in Iraq? Remember the cynics and the skeptics who said the violence was spiraling out of control, and there was nothing the U.S. could do to win and should, therefore, just cut and run and leave the Iraqi people to fend for themselves? If not, here are a few reminders: “I believe…that this war is lost, and this surge is not accomplishing anything, as is shown by the extreme violence in Iraq this week,” Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) declared in April 2007. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY) likewise insisted Iraq was a war we "cannot win." Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) said "invading Iraq has created a crisis of historic proportions" and that President Bush "misled, miscalculated and mismanaged every aspect of this undertaking and he has made the achievement of our objective -- a stable Iraq, secure within its borders, with a representative government -- harder to achieve." Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE) said, "The reality is, we're losing Iraq" and added that "I think our involvement there has destabilized the Middle East. And the longer we stay there, I think...further destabilization will occur." On and on it went. Well, the data continue to pour in. The news keeps getting better and better. The "surge" is working, the critics notwithstanding. Yesterday, USA Today published a story based on an interview with General David Petraeus, the senior U.S. commander on the ground in Iraq, slated later this year to become our CENTCOM commander. "U.S. combat deaths in Iraq appear headed to the lowest monthly total since the start of the war as the top U.S. general there said overall violence is declining toward 'normal' levels. Gen. David Petraeus cautioned, however, that the progress still could be reversed. Suicide attacks Monday in Iraq killed more than 50 Iraqis. 'If you could reduce these sensational attacks further, I think you are almost approaching a level of normal or latent violence,' Petraeus said in a phone interview Monday from Iraq. 'The fact that the levels of violence have come down so significantly and stayed down now for some two-and-a-half months … indicates there is a degree of durability,' Petraeus said. There have been six U.S. combat deaths so far in July, according to a USA TODAY database. The lowest monthly number was eight in May 2003, slightly more than a month after the invasion. Iraqi civilian deaths also have dropped. Although suicide attacks along with other violence has been declining, al-Qaeda retains the ability to bomb civilian targets and wreak havoc. Monday's attack was the deadliest in more than a month. 'Al-Qaeda, although significantly degraded … still can strap a suicide vest on an individual and push him or her into a crowd of Iraqis,' Petraeus said....Daily attacks during the past two months have averaged about 25 to 30, down from about 160 to 170 a little more than a year ago, Petraeus said." We are winning. But let's be clear: we have not yet won. If we cut and run now, Iraq could still collapse into the hands of al Qaeda. Moreover, if we appear in anyway to be running from a battle with radical Islamic jihadists, we will embolden them to launch even more attacks against us. While Iraq remains for now the central battleground in the battle between Radicals and Reformers, the Iran nuclear threat is growing. What will the U.S. do? What with NATO and the E.U. do? What will Israel do? Anything, before it's too late? OTHER HEADLINES TO TRACK: * Iran will not retreat in nuclear standoff: Khamenei
UPDATE: WAR IN NOVEMBER?Posted by Joel C. Rosenberg - July 26, 2008 on 10:47 pm | In Joel Rosenberg | No Comments Western intelligence analysts continue to look at the strong possibility that Israel could strike Iranian nuclear and military targets this fall, possibly in November. Now two new pieces of data need to be factored into the equation. First, Iran now claims to have 6,000 operational centrifuges, feverishly enriching uranium. That is double the number operating at the beginning of the year. What's more, according to the Associated Press, "A total of 3,000 centrifuges is the commonly accepted figure for a nuclear enrichment program that is past the experimental stage and can be used as a platform for a full industrial-scale program that could churn out enough enriched material for dozens of nuclear weapons. Iran says it plans to move toward large-scale uranium enrichment that will ultimately involve 54,000 centrifuges." Second, U.S. officials now believe Russia will not be delivering to Iran this fall a promised and paid for state-of-the-art ground-to-air missile system. The S-300 system was supposed to be delivered to the Iranians as early as September, and operational within 6 to 12 months of delivery, according to Reuters. Pentagon press secretary Geoff Morrell said: "We firmly believe, based upon our understanding of the situation, that the Iranians will not be receiving that Russian anti-aircraft system this year." This buys the Israelis more time, but also increases pressure on Jerusalem to strike the Iranians -- if they are going to strike at all -- before the Russian air defense system is delivered and operational, and probably while President Bush is still in office. That calculus has analysts looking to a possibly late fall or early winter preemptive strike. In many ways, the Israelis find themselves today in a situation somewhat like the spring of 1967 when Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser and other Arab leaders were vowing to "throw the Jews into the sea" and were surrounding the Jewish State with military firepower that posed an existential threat. Israel had to make a decision: strike first and hope to gain the advantage with the element of surprise, or wait to be hit, and risk being annihilated. Let's keep praying for peace, therefore. After all, the nations of the epicenter are clearly preparing for war.
OBAMA BACKS AWAY FROM PLEDGE FOR AN “UNDIVIDED” JERUSALEM: Calls his own AIPAC speech a “mistake”Posted by Joel C. Rosenberg - July 24, 2008 on 6:58 am | In Joel Rosenberg | No Comments Sen. Barack Obama made a surprise visit to the Western Wall in Jerusalem this morning, before leaving Israel for Germany. It was another good photo op for the junior Senator from Illinois. Nevertheless, many in Israel are feeling stunned by the Senator's statements in recent days backing away from a pledge he made in June supporting an "undivided" Jerusalem. Last night on ABC News, the Senator actually called his clear and powerful defense of Jerusalem -- delivered just last month at a conference of the influential American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) -- a "mistake." Consider the following string of statements: * June 4, 2008: "Jerusalem will remain the capital of Israel, and it must remain undivided." (Sen. Barack Obama, Remarks At The Annual AIPAC Policy Conference, Arlington, Virginia) * June 5, 2008: Candy Crowley, CNN: "I want to ask you about something you said in AIPAC yesterday. You said that Jerusalem must remain undivided. Do Palestinians have no claim to Jerusalem in the future?" Sen. Obama: "Well, obviously, it's going to be up to the parties to negotiate a range of these issues." (Interview with Sen. Obama, CNN's "The Situation Room," June 5, 2008) * July 22, 2008: Katie Couric, CBS News: "You said not too long ago that Jerusalem should remain undivided. And then you backtracked on that statement. Does that play into the argument that some believe that someone more experienced would not have made that kind of mistake?" Sen. Obama: "Well, if you look at what happened, there was no shift in policy or backtracking in policy. We just had phrased it poorly in the speech. That has happened and will happen to every politician. You're not always gonna hit your mark in terms of how you phrase your policies. But my policy hasn't changed, and it's been very consistent. It's the same policy that Bill Clinton has put forward, and that says that Jerusalem will be the capital of Israel, that we shouldn't divide it by barbed wire, but that, ultimately that is a final status issue that has to be resolved between the Palestinians and the Israelis." ("Obama: Surge Doesn't Meet Long-Term Goals," CBS News, July 22, 2008) * July 23, 2008: Charlie Gibson, ABC News: "And then there's the issue of Jerusalem. You've said in the speech, to AIPAC, Jerusalem will remain the capital of Israel. And it must remain undivided. When you said that did you not realize the significance that that has for so many people in this region?" Sen. Obama: "Well, number one, the fact is that Jerusalem is Israel's capital. And so I was simply saying a fact, with respect to --" Gibson: "You said 'must remain undivided,' (crosstalk) those are code words." Obama: "Well the issue of it being undivided, I have said and I said immediately after the speech that that word was poorly chosen, that what I was referring to is making sure that we're not setting up barbed wire across Israel --" Gibson: "But Senator, it was a very simple, declarative statement. It must remain, and you started the paragraph by saying, 'Let me be clear'--" Obama: "Charlie, the day after, or the day of making the speech I conceded that the wording was poor, and it's immediately corrected --" Gibson: "Rookie mistake?" Obama: "Well I wouldn't say rookie mistake, I think that veterans make mistakes as well." ("Gibson Interviews Obama," ABC News, July 23, 2008)
OBAMA IN THE EPICENTERPosted by Joel C. Rosenberg - July 22, 2008 on 10:18 am | In Joel Rosenberg | No Comments     The race for President of the United States is currently in a dead heat. I have absolutely no idea who is going to win this thing, and anyone who tells you they do is just guessing. Remember: a year ago, the pundits said Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton was a "sure thing" to win the Democratic nomination, and Sen. John McCain was a "sure thing" not to win the GOP nomination. The pundits were wrong then. I wouldn't put much stock in them now....That said, Sen. Barack Obama faces a very real and daunting hurdle to victory in November. Only 48% of Americans think he would be a strong and decisive enough Commander-in-Chief to lead the U.S. through what could be a tumultous next four years, according to a poll released last week by ABC News. Another 48% are convinced Sen. Obama would specifically not be a good Commander-in-Chief. By contrast, 72% of Americans believe Sen. John McCain would lead our military forces well, while only 25% say he would not. Understand that gap and you'll understand precisely why Obama this week is in the epicenter....With all eyes fixed on Israel and her neighbors and the conflicts that consume them, the junior Senator from Illinois realizes his international record does not inspire confidence. He has no military experience and precious little foreign policy experience, certainly none to compare with to Sen. McCain, a bonafide war hero who has been engaged in every major foreign policy debate of the last quarter century. To win in November, Obama has to close that perception gap. He has to convince more Americans that he is ready for whatever comes next, be it more terrorism from al Qaeda, or an orderly transition of power in Iraq, or -- heaven forbid -- a full blown war with Iran. So he is meeting with foreign leaders as well as U.S. military commanders on the ground in Afghanistan, Iraq, Jordan and Israel and hoping at the very least that the pictures Americans see on TV and in the newspapers from his whirlwind tour will cause them to begin to see him as a world leader and ease their many doubts....While it's true that a picture is worth a thousand words, even a week's worth of photos may not be enough. After all, the Senator's core problem is not simply that he lacks the requisite experience. It's the widespread perception that he lacks the necessary judgment when it comes to the most troubling issues of the Middle East. Consider two examples, Iraq and Iran. ----------------------------- IRAQ -- From the moment President Bush announced that he was taking Sen. McCain's advice to send more U.S. troops to Iraq to crush the insurgency and restore order, Sen. Obama has been a fierce critic of the "surge," arguing not only that it would not help, but that it would actually make the situation worse. "I am not persuaded that 20,000 additional troops in Iraq are going tosolve the sectarian violence there," Obama said on January 17, 2007. "In fact, I think it will do the reverse." Eighteen months later, the results are in: the "surge" has been an astounding success. Things didn't get worse. They got better. Much better. Violent attacks against U.S. troops and Iraqi civilians are down 80%. More than 90% of Iraqi terroritory is now quite safe. More than 70% of combat operations in Iraq are now led by Iraqi forces, with U.S. assistance. Yet Sen. Obama struggles to acknowlege the success and refuses to describe his decision to vote against the "surge" as a mistake. Consider this exchange yesterday with Terry Moran of ABC News. Moran: "'[T]he surge of U.S. troops, combined with ordinary Iraqis' rejection of both al Qaeda and Shiite extremists have transformed the country. Attacks are down more than 80% nationwide. U.S. combat casualties have plummeted, five this month so far, compared with 78 last July, and Baghdad has a pulse again.' If you had to do it over again, knowing what you know now, would you -- would you support the surge?" Obama: "No, because -- keep in mind that -" Moran: "You wouldn't?" Obama: "Well, no, keep -- these kinds of hypotheticals are very difficult. Hindsight is 20/20. I think what I am absolutely convinced of is that at that time, we had to change the political debate, because the view of the Bush administration at that time was one that I just disagreed with." Moran: "And so, when pressed, Barack Obama says he still would have opposed the surge." ---------------------------- IRAN -- In May of this year, Sen. Obama told a town hall meeting that he thought of Iran as small and relatively harmless country, hardly a major threat to the United States, Israel or our allies in the Middle East. “I mean think about it.," he told a group of supporters. "Iran, Cuba, Venezuela, these countries are tiny compared to the Soviet Union. They don't pose a serious threat to us the way the Soviet Union posed a threat to us....You know, Iran, they spend one-one hundredth of what we spend on the military." His aides and advisors were horrified. Even Sen. Clinton conceded Iran was a major threat -- particularly given the regime's lust for nuclear weapons --though she refused to offer a plan to neutralize the threat. So the next day, the Senator flip-flopped. He told a new audience a new story, that he actually does believe Iran is a threat. But Obama's original, unscripted remarks were telling. In his heart, Sen. Obama does not actually believe the regime led by the Ayatollah Khameini and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are deeply and inherently dangerous. He sees Iran as a nuisance, not a forthcoming nuclear-armed power. That is why he is so adamant about wanting to sit down and negotiate personally with Ahmadinejad, without preconditions. His official website actually boasts about this position. "Obama is the only major candidate who supports tough, direct presidential diplomacy with Iran without preconditions," it reads. But to what end?....Has Sen. Obama actually studied the speeches of Khameini and Ahmadinejad? Has he studied their eschatology, or end times theology? Has he been properly briefed on how this eschatology is driving Iranian foreign policy? No one who truly understands what the current Iranian leadership believes could honestly conclude that they can be successfully negotiated with, much less deterred. Ahmadinejad, after all, believes it is his God-given mission to annihilate the U.S., Israel and Judeo-Christian civilization as we know. Why? To create the conditions that will bring the Islamic Messiah known as the Mahdi or the "12th Imam" to earth. Ahmadinejad is not just another power-hungry dictator in the mold of the Soviet or Chinese leaders of yore. He is a Shia Islamic fascist. He believes his life destiny is to kill millions of Jews and Christians and usher in an Islamic caliphate. He believes he is a John-the-Baptist, a forerunner, of the Islamic Messiah. If he dies, he believes he will spend eternity in paradise with 72 virgins. But he doesn't really believe he's going to die. He believes he has been chosen for a divine appointment, and that nothing can stop him. That is what makes him so dangerous. Unfortunately, too many Washington politicians -- Sen. Obama included -- do not understand this. --------------------------- Bottom line: I am glad Sen. Obama and his team are traveling through the epicenter this week. My prayer is that aside from all the lights and cameras and political stagecraft, the Senator is able to hear and discern true wisdom about the actual conditions and trendlines in the region. I hope he is able to come away with a new sense of the high stakes of American failure or success in Iraq, and a palpable sense of the rising threat from Iran. The eyes of the nations are riveted on the Middle East for a reason. The future of the world increasingly depends on what happens there, and the future of America depends a great deal on having a President who understands the times and knows what the U.S. should do. ---------------------------------- * Epicenter: Why The Current Rumblings In The Middle East Will Change Your Future (32% off at Amazon)
REMEMBERING TONY SNOW: A column he wrote for Christianity TodayPosted by Joel C. Rosenberg - July 17, 2008 on 12:18 pm | In Joel Rosenberg | No Comments From the editors of Christianity Today: Commentator and broadcaster Tony Snow announced that he had colon cancer in 2005. Following surgery and chemo-therapy, Snow joined the Bush administration in April 2006 as press secretary. Unfortunately, on March 23 Snow, 51, a husband and father of three, announced that the cancer had recurred, with tumors found in his abdomen—leading to surgery in April, followed by more chemotherapy. Snow went back to work in the White House Briefing Room on May 30, but resigned August 31. CT asked Snow what spiritual lessons he has been learning through the ordeal. Cancer's Unexpected Blessings When you enter the Valley of the Shadow of Death, things change. By Tony Snow Christianity Today July 20, 2007 Blessings arrive in unexpected packages—in my case, cancer. Those of us with potentially fatal diseases—and there are millions in America today—find ourselves in the odd position of coping with our mortality while trying to fathom God's will. Although it would be the height of presumption to declare with confidence What It All Means, Scripture provides powerful hints and consolations. The first is that we shouldn't spend too much time trying to answer the why questions: Why me? Why must people suffer? Why can't someone else get sick? We can't answer such things, and the questions themselves often are designed more to express our anguish than to solicit an answer. I don't know why I have cancer, and I don't much care. It is what it is—a plain and indisputable fact. Yet even while staring into a mirror darkly, great and stunning truths begin to take shape. Our maladies define a central feature of our existence: We are fallen. We are imperfect. Our bodies give out. But despite this—because of it—God offers the possibility of salvation and grace. We don't know how the narrative of our lives will end, but we get to choose how to use the interval between now and the moment we meet our Creator face-to-face. Second, we need to get past the anxiety. The mere thought of dying can send adrenaline flooding through your system. A dizzy, unfocused panic seizes you. Your heart thumps; your head swims. You think of nothingness and swoon. You fear partings; you worry about the impact on family and friends. You fidget and get nowhere. To regain footing, remember that we were born not into death, but into life—and that the journey continues after we have finished our days on this earth. We accept this on faith, but that faith is nourished by a conviction that stirs even within many nonbelieving hearts—an intuition that the gift of life, once given, cannot be taken away. Those who have been stricken enjoy the special privilege of being able to fight with their might, main, and faith to live—fully, richly, exuberantly—no matter how their days may be numbered. Third, we can open our eyes and hearts. God relishes surprise. We want lives of simple, predictable ease—smooth, even trails as far as the eye can see—but God likes to go off-road. He provokes us with twists and turns. He places us in predicaments that seem to defy our endurance and comprehension—and yet don't. By his love and grace, we persevere. The challenges that make our hearts leap and stomachs churn invariably strengthen our faith and grant measures of wisdom and joy we would not experience otherwise. 'You Have Been Called' Picture yourself in a hospital bed. The fog of anesthesia has begun to wear away. A doctor stands at your feet; a loved one holds your hand at the side. "It's cancer," the healer announces. The natural reaction is to turn to God and ask him to serve as a cosmic Santa. "Dear God, make it all go away. Make everything simpler." But another voice whispers: "You have been called." Your quandary has drawn you closer to God, closer to those you love, closer to the issues that matter—and has dragged into insignificance the banal concerns that occupy our "normal time." There's another kind of response, although usually short-lived—an inexplicable shudder of excitement, as if a clarifying moment of calamity has swept away everything trivial and tinny, and placed before us the challenge of important questions. The moment you enter the Valley of the Shadow of Death, things change. You discover that Christianity is not something doughy, passive, pious, and soft. Faith may be the substance of things hoped for, the evidence of things not seen. But it also draws you into a world shorn of fearful caution. The life of belief teems with thrills, boldness, danger, shocks, reversals, triumphs, and epiphanies. Think of Paul, traipsing though the known world and contemplating trips to what must have seemed the antipodes (Spain), shaking the dust from his sandals, worrying not about the morrow, but only about the moment. There's nothing wilder than a life of humble virtue—for it is through selflessness and service that God wrings from our bodies and spirits the most we ever could give, the most we ever could offer, and the most we ever could do. Finally, we can let love change everything. When Jesus was faced with the prospect of crucifixion, he grieved not for himself, but for us. He cried for Jerusalem before entering the holy city. From the Cross, he took on the cumulative burden of human sin and weakness, and begged for forgiveness on our behalf. We get repeated chances to learn that life is not about us—that we acquire purpose and satisfaction by sharing in God's love for others. Sickness gets us partway there. It reminds us of our limitations and dependence. But it also gives us a chance to serve the healthy. A minister friend of mine observes that people suffering grave afflictions often acquire the faith of two people, while loved ones accept the burden of two people's worries and fears. Learning How to Live Most of us have watched friends as they drifted toward God's arms not with resignation, but with peace and hope. In so doing, they have taught us not how to die, but how to live. They have emulated Christ by transmitting the power and authority of love. I sat by my best friend's bedside a few years ago as a wasting cancer took him away. He kept at his table a worn Bible and a 1928 edition of the Book of Common Prayer. A shattering grief disabled his family, many of his old friends, and at least one priest. Here was a humble and very good guy, someone who apologized when he winced with pain because he thought it made his guest uncomfortable. He retained his equanimity and good humor literally until his last conscious moment. "I'm going to try to beat [this cancer]," he told me several months before he died. "But if I don't, I'll see you on the other side." His gift was to remind everyone around him that even though God doesn't promise us tomorrow, he does promise us eternity—filled with life and love we cannot comprehend—and that one can in the throes of sickness point the rest of us toward timeless truths that will help us weather future storms. Through such trials, God bids us to choose: Do we believe, or do we not? Will we be bold enough to love, daring enough to serve, humble enough to submit, and strong enough to acknowledge our limitations? Can we surrender our concern in things that don't matter so that we might devote our remaining days to things that do? When our faith flags, he throws reminders in our way. Think of the prayer warriors in our midst. They change things, and those of us who have been on the receiving end of their petitions and intercessions know it. It is hard to describe, but there are times when suddenly the hairs on the back of your neck stand up, and you feel a surge of the Spirit. Somehow you just know: Others have chosen, when talking to the Author of all creation, to lift us up—to speak of us! This is love of a very special order. But so is the ability to sit back and appreciate the wonder of every created thing. The mere thought of death somehow makes every blessing vivid, every happiness more luminous and intense. We may not know how our contest with sickness will end, but we have felt the ineluctable touch of God. What is man that Thou art mindful of him? We don't know much, but we know this: No matter where we are, no matter what we do, no matter how bleak or frightening our prospects, each and every one of us, each and every day, lies in the same safe and impregnable place—in the hollow of God's hand.
A TIME TO WEEPPosted by Joel C. Rosenberg - July 16, 2008 on 5:53 pm | In Joel Rosenberg | No Comments  Let love be without hypocrisy. Abhor what is evil; cling to what is good. Be devoted to one another in brotherly love; give preference to one another in honor; not lagging behind in diligence, fervent in spirit, serving the Lord; rejoicing in hope, persevering in tribulation, devoted to prayer, contributing to the needs of the saints, practicing hospitality. Bless those who persecute you; bless and do not curse. Rejoice with those who rejoice, and weep with those who weep. Be of the same mind toward one another; do not be haughty in mind, but associate with the lowly. Do not be wise in your own estimation. Never pay back evil for evil to anyone. Respect what is right in the sight of all men. If possible, so far as it depends on you, be at peace with all men. Never take your own revenge, beloved, but leave room for the wrath of God, for it is written, “Vengeance is Mine, I will repay,” says the Lord. “But if your enemy is hungry, feed him, and if he is thirsty, give him a drink; for in so doing you will heap burning coals on his head.” Do not be overcome by evil, but overcome evil with good. (Romans 12:9-21) To our dear friends in Israel, I have a very heavy heart today. The Joshua Fund team is grieving with you over the deaths of Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev. We had been hoping and praying along with you that we could all rejoice together, that there would be a sweet reunion. Yet we are faced with a bitter reality. Our hearts are broken for you as a nation. This tragic news weighs even heavier in light of the brewing conflict that fills the news across the globe. We are praying for you, and we are very aware that your own precious sons and daughters are called to stand against Israel's enemies. It is this prospect of future war hanging over Israel that motivates us these days. We are diligently preparing and pre-positioning relief supplies, so that we can bless all Israelis together, should the L-rd allow another attack. He longs for Israel to return to Him wholeheartedly. He is passionate to restore His people, for His ruach [Spirit] to bring them to life. We stand by ready to do everything we can to help you in your time of need, trusting that He will do what is necessary to return the children of Israel to their land and to His heart. Those of us who know Yeshua must rise to show His love in the face of this evil. We are called to reflect the character of the True and Living God, the One who values every life he has created. We still long for all in the region -- Jews and Gentiles -- to ask, "Why do the people who love Yeshua, love me?" Never has this been more critical than today, and the L-rd is able to make His love even more evident against the backdrop of hatred that surrounds you. Israel will always be in her prayers. So will her neighbors. And her enemies. We pray especially that the Spirit of the True God would fall upon Sheikh Nasrallah and the leaders of Hezbollah and bring them to saving, transforming faith in Jesus Christ, for it is only through the Prince of Peace that the problems of the Middle East will ever truly be solved. "Behold, He who keeps Israel will neither slumber nor sleep." (Psalm 121:4) Amen. [Top photo: Eldad Regev on the left, Ehud Goldwasser on the right]
“MEDITERRANEAN UNION” IS BORN: Intriguing, disturbing, and propheticPosted by Joel C. Rosenberg - July 14, 2008 on 2:09 pm | In Joel Rosenberg | No Comments  An intriguing new geopolitical entity was born over the weekend that could in ways small and large dramatically change the course of Europe and the Middle East in the years ahead. At a series of ceremonies in Paris -- in a palace overlooking the River Seine -- leaders from 43 countries comprising 756 million people met officially to form the "Mediterranean Union," to fight terrorism, end WMD proliferation, enhance regional security, and promote free trade, economic development, and tourism. The brainchild of French President Nicolas Sarkzozy, the M.U. is certainly not a formal military or economic alliance by any stretch. Not yet, at least. But significantly, it does include all the nations of the European Union, Israel and all the countries of North Africa. The sole exception is Libya, whose leader, Muammar Gadaffi, denounced the organization as the rise of a "another Roman Empire." Gadaffi is right. That's precisely what we're seeing. It disturbs me, in no small part because of the fact that Syria's thuggish President Bashar Assad was allowed to strut out ont the international stage again at Sarkozy's invitation despite the fact that the world has done so much to isolate Assad for his atrocities in Lebanon, Iraq and within his own country. Nevertheless, Sarkozy and his colleagues are ecstatic about what they're doing and where it could lead. They see a unified Europe setting the model for a unified planet. A one world system, run by Europe. And the first step, in the eyes of the "Eurocrats" is to expand their territory southward. "The European and the Mediterranean dreams are inseparable," Sarkozy said at the opening festivities. "We will succeed together; we will fail together....We will build peace in the Mediterranean together, like yesterday we built peace in Europe...not north against south, not Europe against the rest, but united....We dreamed about a Union for the Mediterranean, and now it is a reality." Skeptics and cynics abound as to what will really come of all this. But as I have written about before, it is worth noting that Bible prophecies indicate that in the last days the world will witness the resurrection of the Roman Empire. The Scriptures tell us that eventually a global dictator who will come to be known to the world as the "Antichrist" will be a European leader of Roman origin. I have absolutely no idea who that person will be, but that is not the point. The point is that sixty years ago, Europe was the most war-torn, economically ravaged and politically divided continent on the planet. It had just waged two horrific world wars, committed genocide, and would soon launch a fifty year Cold War (complete with the Berlin Wall, NATO and the Warsaw Pact) as well. During those dark years, few could have imagined that in 2007, Europe would have one currency, one increasingly unified political system, borderless crossings, and that all this would be based on a treaty signed in Rome on March 25, 1957. Indeed the first draft of the new European constitution was signed in Rome as well, on October 29, 2004. It has been ratified by 18 of 27 countries. It's not yet clear how soon it will be ratified by the rest, but for better or for worse, Europe's new leaders not only want to get it done -- they now want to expand their Union to include Israel and as many Mideast countries as possible. Another trend worth watching closely.
DEAD HEAT: And good-bye to Tony SnowPosted by Joel C. Rosenberg - July 13, 2008 on 9:27 pm | In Joel Rosenberg | No Comments A new Newsweek poll finds the hotly contested presidential race between Senators McCain and Obama is now a statistical dead heat, despite the fact that Obama was leading last month by 15 points. Excerpt: "A month after emerging victorious from the bruising Democratic nominating contest, some of Barack Obama's glow may be fading. In the latest NEWSWEEK Poll, the Illinois senator leads Republican nominee John McCain by just 3 percentage points, 44 percent to 41 percent. The statistical dead heat is a marked change from last month's NEWSWEEK Poll, where Obama led McCain by 15 points, 51 percent to 36 percent." Please join me in praying that nothing in my novel, Dead Heat, comes true besides this.On a separate and personal note, I want to say goodbye to a good man that I will miss, Tony Snow. He passed away Saturday morning after a heroic battle with cancer. But I know that he is in heaven, and I look forward to seeing him and catching again when the Lord calls me home one day. In the meantime, Lynn and I have been praying all weekend for his wife and children and their close friends who will miss his humor, his insight, and his warmth. Tony and I met when he would occassionally fill in for Rush Limbaugh on the radio show during the mid-1990s. At the time, I was Rush's Director of Research, based in Washington. Tony and producer James "Bo Snerdley" Golden and I would do show prep together at the WABC studies in downtown Washington, scouring the wires for the most interesting stories in the news, debating their meaning, hunting down additional research, and making each other laugh. Over the years, Tony and I kept in touch by email. When he announced from the White House press room that he had cancer, I sent him an email to encourage him and let him know I was praying for him. That may have been the fastest email to which he ever responded, at least from me. Minutes later he'd written back saying how much he appreciated that. He believed in prayer. He was a committed evangelical Christian. I remember how glad I was when Tony spoke at a dinner of journalists one year -- the night before a National Prayer Breakfast -- about what his faith in Jesus Christ meant to him. It didn't seem entirely easy for him to discuss his faith in depth before so many colleagues who didn't believe as he did. But he did it anyway. And now he is with the Messiah who loved him so much that He gave up His life on cross to give all of us the opportunity to be adopted into God's family. Tony said yes to God's invitation. And I hope you will, too.
MISSILES & THE MESSIAH MAKING NEWSPosted by Joel C. Rosenberg - July 10, 2008 on 11:21 am | In Joel Rosenberg | No Comments  Talk of missiles and the Messiah are making big news in Israel, Iran, and the U.S. in recent days. It's a curious combination, to be sure. But numerous high-profile stories and television programs on both topics are stirring interest and controversy among millions in three countries that could not be more different. The Messiah stories are particularly interesting to me. Iran, as I mentioned the other day, is running a new documentary TV series on Jewish, Christian and Islamic eschatology (End Times theology), consistent with President Ahmadinejad's on-going call for the Muslim world to prepare for the "imminent" arrival of the Islamic Messiah, known as the Mahdi. The Israeli archaeological community, meanwhile, is currently abuzz over the discovery of a ancient stone tablet dated not long before the birth of Jesus that strongly suggests that religious Jews of the day were expecting the coming of a Messiah who would suffer, die, and be resurrected three days later. Most Rabbis and other Jewish scholars have long argued that the death and resurrection of a Jewish Messiah was a "Christian" invention, not part of long-established Jewish thought or Biblical teaching. But a front-page story in Haaretz, a leading Israeli newspaper, just a few days ago has a lot of people asking: Are Jews really supposed to believe their Messiah will actually die and rise again, and was this really Orthodox religious thinking before the time of Jesus? Let's start with the missile stories. Tensions are growing -- as are oil prices -- after Iran tested more medium- to long-range ballistic missiles overnight. Each of the missiles were capable of reaching Israel, all U.S. bases in the region, all of the major oil fields and facilities in the epicenter, and even cities in southern Europe. Each were also capable, experts believe, of carrying nuclear warheads. Particularly disturbing to me was this story out of Israel. "The IAEA's latest report of Iranian nuclear capabilities noted several covert developments 'which should be cause for some concern': Developments of nuclear detonators, high-end experiments involving conventional explosives made to accelerate nuclear warheads' fission and underground nuclear testing facilities. The most disconcerting find, however was that of computer files suggesting Iran already possesses – and may have already tested – a full-fledged nuclear warhead. To make matters worse, the Swiss authorities have recently discovered even more computer files suggesting Abd al-Kader Khan did more than draw plans for a simple nuclear warhead – he may have also provided the Iranians with the blueprints for a new, extremely small nuclear warhead, which can be installed atop ballistic missiles." Consider these other headlines: * Iran Press Service: In Direct Warning to Israel, Iran Test-Fired Long-Range Missile * Islamic Republic News Agency: President Ahmadinejad: US, Israel not dare attack Iran * AP: Iran test-fires more missiles in Persian Gulf * Times of London: Iran ready to strike at Israel’s nuclear heart: Iran has moved ballistic missiles into launch positions, with Israel’s Dimona nuclear plant among the possible targets * AP: Israeli defense minister Barak hints at Israel's readiness to strike Iran * AP: Rice warns Iran that US will defend Israel * MEMRI: Iran in Preparations, Deployment to Withstand Possible Attack by West There's no question now that Tehran, Jerusalem and Washington are also actively preparing for the possibility of a major regional war this fall. But that's not all. A Wall Street Journal editorial this morning on "Iran's Missile Threat" raises another disturbing scenario, one seemingly ripped right out of my latest thriller, Dead Heat. "Yesterday's tests offered no big surprises about Iran's missile technology, but they are a useful reminder of just how real the Iranian threat is – and how rapidly it is growing," observed the Journal. "One of the missiles tested was the latest update of the Shahab-3, which has a range of about 1,250 miles. Replace the payload with a lighter one – say, a nuclear warhead – and the range gains 1,000 miles. Add a booster and the range can be extended even farther. North Korea did just that with its Taepodong missile – technology that it passed along to Iran. U.S. intelligence estimates that Iran will have a ballistic missile capable of reaching New York or Washington by about 2015. Iran may already have the capability to target the U.S. with a short-range missile by launching it from a freighter off the East Coast. A few years ago it was observed practicing the launch of Scuds from a barge in the Caspian Sea. This would be especially troubling if Tehran is developing EMP – electromagnetic pulse – technology. A nuclear weapon detonated a hundred miles over U.S. territory would create an electromagnetic pulse that would virtually shut down the U.S. economy by destroying electronic circuits on the ground. William Graham, head of a Congressional commission to assess the EMP threat, testifies before the House Armed Services Committee this morning. We hope someone asks him about Iran." All the more reason to move forward -- rapidly -- with a robut missile defense program for the U.S., Israel and Europe, regardless of what the Russians say. Now, let's turn to the Messiah stories. Through TV programs like "The Secret of Armageddon," the Iranian government continues trying to prepare people for what Ahmadinejad sees as the increasingly "imminent" coming of the Islamic Messiah. I don't begrudge them that, per se. I also believe we are living in the last days. I believe the Messiah is coming. And I believe we all need to live differently in light of these truths. The problem is that while Jesus, the Apostles and all Biblical eschatology teaches us to love our neighbors and our enemies in the End Times -- and share the good news of God's love and salvation for all who will listen and respond -- Shia Islamic eschatology teaches just the opposite. The way to hasten the Mahdi's appearance or arrival on earth, Shia scholars teach, is to create chaos and carnage on the planet and kill tens of millions of people. They believe that annihilating Judeo-Christian civilization as we know it and sending the world goes up in flames will then trigger the arrival of the Mahdi who will bring righteousness, justice and peace and create a worldwide Islamic empire. Of course, it's one thing to believe in such horrifying theology. It's another thing to run a country based on it. Yet that is exactly what is happening in Iran today. Such Shia eschatology is driving Iranian foreign policy. What's more, it is driving the Iranian regime's feverish bid to build, buy or steal nuclear weapons and the missiles capable of delivering them to U.S. and Israeli targets. Such genocidal zealots cannot be successfully negotiated with or deterred. That's what is so critical for Washington and our allies to understand. Ahmadinejad -- and, more importantly, the Ayatollah Khamenei -- don't want to be stopped. They believe they are on a God-given mission to bring about the end of the world, and they are eager and passionate about getting the job done as quickly as possible. Meanwhile, a far healthier discussion going on right now in Israel. Many religious Jews also believe global events are lining up to usher in the coming of the Messiah. Of course, they believe He will be arriving for the first time, not the second time, as Christians believe. But now the very nature of who the Messiah is and what He will do when He arrives is being debated in a whole new way. Consider these stories (and I strongly encourage you to read each thoroughly): * Haaretz (a leading Israeli daily newspaper): Dead Sea tablet suggests Jewish resurrection imagery pre-dates Jesus * New York Times: Ancient Tablet Ignites Debate on Messiah and Resurrection * Agence France Presse: Mystery tablet could redefine Jewish-Christian links * The Jewish Journal: Was Jesus’ resurrection culturally expected? Israeli Professor Israel Knohl of The Hebrew University of Jerusalem finds himself in the spotlight for a presentation he is giving this week at a major conference on the 60th anniversary of discovering the Dead Sea Scrolls. His lecture is entitled, "The Gabriel Revelation and the Birth of Christianity," and it is creating a whole lot of buzz. "The first part [of the ancient tablet that he has been studying] describes an eschatological war," Knohl explains. "The nations of the world besiege Jerusalem, and the residents are expelled from the city in groups. This description is followed by a passage in which God sends “my servant David” to ask...the Messiah Son of Joseph to deliver a 'sign.' From the context, it appears that this sign heralds the coming redemption.The second part of the Gabriel Revelation focuses on death and resurrection – and the blood of the slain. The last paragraph cites the words of the Archangel Gabriel who commands a person to return to life after three days: 'By three days, live.' In my lecture I will deal with the possible connection between the figure of Ephraim, the Messiah Son of Joseph, and the image of Jesus in the New Testament. I will also explore the possible link between the resurrection 'by three days' commanded by Gabriel in the Gabriel Revelation and the resurrection of Jesus 'on the third day.'”...."Moshe Idel, a professor of Jewish thought at Hebrew University, said that given the way every tiny fragment from that era yielded scores of articles and books, 'Gabriel’s Revelation' and Mr. Knohl’s analysis deserved serious attention," reports the New York Times. “Here we have a real stone with a real text,” he said. “This is truly significant.” What Knohl finds most significant is "the fact that [the writings on the stone tablet] strongly suggested that a savior who died and rose after three days was an established concept at the time of Jesus. He notes that in the Gospels, Jesus makes numerous predictions of his suffering and New Testament scholars say such predictions must have been written in by later followers because there was no such idea present in his day. But there was, he said, and 'Gabriel’s Revelation' shows it." “His mission is that he has to be put to death by the Romans to suffer so his blood will be the sign for redemption to come,” Mr. Knohl said. “This is the sign of the son of Joseph. This is the conscious view of Jesus himself....To shed blood...to bring redemption to Israel.” Two trends worth watching.
WAR IN NOVEMBER?Posted by Joel C. Rosenberg - July 8, 2008 on 7:22 am | In Joel Rosenberg | No Comments UPDATED: War clouds continue to build in the epicenter. Last month in Rome, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad vowed that the United States and Israel would soon be "annihilated," language he had not used so explicitly since October 2005 when he promised to wipe Israel "off the map" and urged Muslims to "envision a world without the United States." This week, his regime authorized a new series of Iranian war games to prepare for war with the U.S. and Israel. He ordered the digging of 320,000 graves to bury the enemies of Islam. He is calling for the unification of the Islamic world politically and economically, including the creation of a single currency. What's more, Iranian TV is running a new anti-Semitic documentary film series entitled, "The Secret of Armageddon." Setting the stage for a coming apocalyptic war that will usher in the Islamic Messiah known as the Mahdi or the "Twelfth Imam," the series focuses on a series of Bible prophecies that inform Jewish and Christian End Times theology. While the presentation is grossly distorted, some facts do emerge. Iranian scholar Dr. Ismail Shafe'i Sarustani , for example, tells viewers that the word "Armageddon" is "originally a Hebrew word" and "is a real geographical region, situated south of Haifa," noting that "the place was shelled by Hizbullah during the 33-day [July 2006] war." Iranian historian Mohammad-Taqi Taqipour notes that "these [Evangelical Christians], along with the Jews, believe that the War of the End of Days will take place in the desert of Megiddo, in Palestine. They believe that Jesus will return, and that then there will be a millennium of happiness." The series, however, accuses Jews who were recently victims of genocide during the Holocaust Ahmadinejad denies every happened of actually planning to commit genocide against more than 6 billion people on the planet today. "There is a genocidal Zionist Jewish plan for the genocide of humanity at the hand of the Zionist Jew-boys," claims one Iranian researcher interviewed for the program. "The Zionist Jew-boys talk about a 'Greater Israel' -- from the Euphrates to the Nile -- but their actual goal is world domination." At one point, Iranian researcher Shams Al-Din Rahmani argues that "the goal of the Zionists is the total destruction of Islam." During the June 7th episode, the narrator embraces anti-Semitic conspiracy theories proceeds to try to justify Iran's plans to destroy the U.S. and Israel. "Today, there are many indications that the 'hidden hands' of world Zionism were involved in the 9/11 terrorist attack. According to a large group of Western intellectuals, the Zionists are the real rulers of the United States. According to irrefutable documents published by independent American media outlets, the Zionists used intelligence agents and spies, with the full cooperation of agencies with the country, to carry out this terrorist operation in full view of the world, in order to prepare the ground for taking over Afghanistan and Iraq, and to realize the dream of a greater Israel." Top Israeli intelligence officials, meanwhile, increasingly believe that time is running out. They believe that Iran could have nuclear weapons within a year and one former Mossad chief is urging his country's leadership to launch a massive series of air strikes against Iranian nuclear and other military facilities before it is too late. Israel's Air Force just conducted a test run of such a bombing mission. John Bolton, the former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N., says he believes Israel may strike Iran sometime in late fall or early winter, after the U.S. elections in November but before the inauguration of the next American President. A senior Pentagon officials told the Washington Post several days ago he is worried about the same scenario -- a November surprise -- prompting both President Bush and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs to make strong public statements warning the Israelis not to take such actions. Until just a few weeks ago, it was widely believed in Israel that new parliamentary elections would be held in November. But at the last moment, Defense Minister Ehud Barak withdrew his threat of voting to bring down the Olmert government for a few more months, leading some to speculate that Barak may be calculating that Israelis couldn't be fully immersed in an electoral campaign and a bombing campaign simultaneously. The U.S. may not want Israel to strike. The repercussions of such a war with Iran would be global in nature. Israel would face tens of thousands of incoming missiles not just from Iran but likely from Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza and possibly the West Bank. Some of these missiles could be have chemical and/or biological warheads, even if the nuclear warheads in Iran are not yet ready. Ballistic missiles would also be likely fired from Iran at the oil fields in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States, at oil tankers in the Persian Gulf and the Straight of Hormuz, and at U.S. bases and forces in Iraq. Tens of thousands of suicide bomber cells could be activated in the region -- especially in Iraq and Israel -- and perhaps even in Western Europe and the U.S. and Canada. Iranian efforts to topple Jordan's King Abdullah II and/or Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in favor of a radical Islamic regime friendly to Tehran could also be set in motion. Oil prices could shoot from $140 a barrel to $300 a barrel or more. U.S. gas prices could spike to $7-$10 or more, with horrific domestic and global economic repercussions. No wonder Washington doesn't want a war with Iran. No wants such a war. I certainly do not. And yet, the U.S. does not have a convincing plan to stop the Iranian nuclear weapons program in time. Nor does the U.N., or the E.U. Diplomacy isn't working. Economic sanctions have been imposed on Iran since 1979 to little strategic effect. Unfortunately, the words of Sen. John McCain keep echoing in my head this week. In April 2006, the senior Senator from Arizona appeared on NBC's Meet the Press and warned that "there's only one thing worse than using the option of military action, and that is the Iranians acquiring nuclear weapons." For if Iran gets the Bomb, he said, "I think we could have Armageddon." Developing.... -----------------------------------KEY HEADLINES TO TRACK: * Israel has a year to destroy Iran's nuclear programme: ex-spy chief * Former Mossad chief: Israel must attack Iran: 'Or we will find ourselves in very dangerous situation' * John Bolton: Israel could strike Iran after U.S. presidential election * Don't bomb Iran, Bush warns Israel * Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Michael Mullen: US army would find 'third front' hard if Israel attacks Iran * Mullen: Many risks if Israel strikes Iran * Iran's Revolutionary Guards hold war games -- code-named: "The Great Prophet Maneuvers" * Iran digging graves for 320,000 enemies in preparation for coming war * Ahmadinejad calls for a single currency for the Islamic world * AHMADINEJAD VOWS U.S & ISRAEL WILL SOON BE "ANNIHILATED": Israeli leader says war may be "unavoidable" * Washington Post: PENTAGON OFFICIAL WARNS ISRAEL COULD ATTACK IRAN BY YEAR'S END: Chairman of Joint Chiefs was in Israel over weekend * ISRAELI AIR FORCE PRACTICING TO ATTACK IRANIAN NUCLEAR SITES ---------------------------------- * "60 Ways To Bless Israel At 60" * Would you consider signing up to make a monthly donation to The Joshua Fund of $25, $40 or $60? All donations are tax deductible. For more information on how to make contributions by mail -- or by secure on-line credit card transactions -- please click here. * What is The Joshua Fund? * Sign up for Flash Traffic, free email alerts from Joel C. Rosenberg * Featured on Dobson show: Dead Heat: A Novel (34% off at Amazon) * Featured on Dobson show: Epicenter: Why The Current Rumblings In The Middle East Will Change Your Future (32% off at Amazon) * Epicenter documentary film on DVD
HISTORIC HANDSHAKE: Iraqi President actually greets Israel’s Defense MinisterPosted by Joel C. Rosenberg - July 2, 2008 on 8:05 am | In Joel Rosenberg | No Comments Please forgive me for not updating this blog as often as usual. The main reason is that I'm immersed this summer in writing a new non-fiction book, Inside The Revolution, about the battle between Radicals and Reformers in the Middle East for the soul of the Islamic world. One of the Reformers that has most intrigued me is a man by the name of Jalal Talabani. As the first truly democratically elected President of Iraq in human history and one who has consistently put his life on the line to fight the jihadists in his country, Talabani is a man who should be on the cover of Time and Newsweek. He should be the subject of lengthly profiles by network TV news magazines. One should be able to buy a New York Times best-selling biography of him. In short, Jalal Talabani should be a household name in the U.S. for the convictions he holds, the risks he takes, and the success he is achieving, bit by bit, day by day, week by week. And yet he receives almost no serious press coverage in the U.S. or Europe. Over the past few months, I have interviewed those who know this 74-year old Kurdish patriot well. I've read hundreds of pages of speeches by him and articles about him, trying understand how this former violent rebel leader somehow transformed into a Jeffersonian Democrat in pursuit of a peaceful, prosperous, tolerant and pluralistic Iraqi society, friendly towards the U.S., friendly towards Jews and Christians, and deeply opposed to radical Islam. It's a story that intrigues me and, I confess, still baffles me. But I'm hunting down every lead I can, and praying for an opportunity to actually interview Talabani on my next trip to Iraq. That said, perhaps you can understand how interesting I found this story of President Talabani smiling and shaking hands with former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak, now Israel's Defense Minister. What's more, the meeting was arranged by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. It was a small but historic moment that took place yesterday at a conference just outside of Athens, Greece. Talabani's office downplayed its significance tot he Iraqi press so as not to stir up more trouble inside their troubled country. But the truth is, it was significant. The last President of Iraq -- Saddam Hussein -- vowed to incinerate half of Israel with chemical weapons....and went on to launch 39 ballistic missiles at the Jewish State during the first Gulf War. Clearly, Talabani is cut from wholly different cloth. And thank God. Worth watching, to say the least.
PENTAGON OFFICIAL WARNS ISRAEL COULD ATTACK IRAN BY YEAR’S END: Chairman of Joint Chiefs was in Israel over weekendPosted by Joel C. Rosenberg - July 2, 2008 on 7:44 am | In Joel Rosenberg | No Comments Excerpts from an ABC News story by Jonathan Karl: "Senior Pentagon officials are concerned that Israel could carry out an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities before the end of the year, an action that would have enormous security and economic repercussions for the United States and the rest of the world. A senior defense official told ABC News there is an 'increasing likelihood' that Israel will carry out such an attack, a move that likely would prompt Iranian retaliation against, not just Israel, but against the United States as well. The official identified two 'red lines' that could trigger an Israeli offensive. The first is tied to when Iran's Natanz nuclear facility produces enough highly enriched uranium to make a nuclear weapon. According to the latest U.S. and Israeli intelligence assessments, that is likely to happen sometime in 2009, and could happen by the end of this year. 'The red line is not when they get to that point, but before they get to that point,' the official said. 'We are in the window of vulnerability.' The second red line is connected to when Iran acquires the SA-20 air defense system it is buying from Russia. The Israelis may want to strike before that system -- which would make an attack much more difficult -- is put in place. Some Pentagon officials also worry that Israel may be determined to attack before a new U.S. president, who may be less supportive, is sworn in next January. Pentagon officials believe the massive Israeli air force exercise in early June, first reported by the New York Times, was done to prepare for a possible attack....'The Israeli air force has already conducted the basic exercise necessary to tell their senior leadership, We have the fundamentals down. Might they need some more training and rehearsals? Yes. But have they done the fundamentals? I think that is what we saw,' the official told ABC News....The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Adm. Mike Mullen, was in Israel over the weekend for a series of meetings with senior Israeli military officials, including, Lt. Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi, the chief of staff of the Israeli Defense Forces. According to a military spokesman, Iran's nuclear program was 'a major topic' of |