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Letter Re: A Tasmanian’s Perspective on Preparedness

Hi,
I have been reading SurvivalBlog now for several months and really enjoyed the articles. I live in Hobart, Tasmania, Australia . For those who don’t know the place and I imagine there are many who are unfamiliar with this part of the world, it’s an island at the bottom of Australia.

I work on disease protection for the government. This involves responding to bird flu pandemics, terrorist attacks etc. Being an island at the bottom of the world with not many threats, it’s an easy job. But I do believe that there is lots of trouble coming in the future from climate change, increasing world populations in areas that cannot support any more people, Peak Oil, et cetera. So in my view, thinking people should prepare for trouble ahead and develop personal plans for survival.

The reason I have written in today is that from some of the posts that people have submitted to SurvivalBlog, many are planning just for total breakdown in society, everyone for themselves, point the guns out the door and survive at all costs. From my limited reading and understanding of such situations, total breakdown would only occur in extreme events like total nuclear war. For example, even in Germany during war time with the Russians advancing one direction, and the allies the other, it had a functioning society where you could buy goods and services and the government still functioned. Thus perhaps people should have several plans. One for total breakdown (like nuclear war), one for minor disruptions like financial meltdowns/depressions and another for global pandemics/biological warfare.

Hopefully we will only experience minor disruptions and we should have already planned ahead by growing as much of our own food as possible, reduced our mortgages, moved closer to work, kept food stocks, stored heating fuel etc. Being prepared for something to happen tomorrow will lessen people's reliance on the modern supermarket and the expected doubling of prices, shortages etc. In the event of a pandemic, then avoiding public places and other people is a very good idea, so food stocks will help and being able to work from home is a major advantage.

My point is that people need to plan for a number of scenarios, not just "let's retreat and point the guns". I personally will be trying to help my community survive any disruption, for the sake of my children, loved ones and country. Previous generations have faced bad times before and moved through them without losing their sense of community. My grandfather used to tell me about life during the Depression, where he used to hunt rabbits and other game to stretch the family budget and how they used to reuse things to save money. You could buy things, but you just didn’t have any money. But even during those hard times he said there was always a strong community spirit and they always helped out others who were less able to cope. We should all plan for being able to help others by being self reliant.

Lastly if people want to relocate to an area that is not targeted for nuclear war, has a modern economy, speaks English, and has less than half a million people in an area the size of Ireland, then move here to Tasmania. We even like Americans. - M. L.

Odds ‘n Sods:

Reader Bob S. pointed us to an interesting thread in progress over at the When SHTF Forum, about Bug-Out Vehicles (BOVs). I generally advise painting BOVs in a single flat earth tone color. A camouflage paint scheme can actually attract attention, which could be a bad thing. OBTW, most semi-gloss paints can be turned into flat paint by mixing in a flattener additive before spraying it on.

   o o o

The Russians continue to claim publicly that they are "withdrawing" from Georgia. If so, then why is their armor still heading south? Perhaps they're planning to withdraw by way of Tibilisi.

   o o o

North Texas school district will let teachers carry guns. Why isn't this already the norm, across the nation? It makes sense to me. OBTW, Naish Piazza of Front Siight is offering free firearms training to the teachers and administrators from that school district. The Four Day Defensive Handgun Course mentioned is the same one that The Memsahib and I took, and the same course that is included with Front Sight's current "Guns and Gear " offer. Take advantage of it!

   o o o

Bob at Ready Made Resources mentioned that they have added Jaffrey's Fruit Presses to their product line. With harvest season in full swing here in the northern hemisphere, this is an important tool to own.

   o o o

Fay prompts tropical storm warning for South Florida. I trust that that SurvivalBlog readers in the southeastern US are far better prepared than most of their neighbors. You'll be in our prayers.

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"I remember during the metals’ bull market of the 1970s when we were worried about gas rising to $1.50 a gallon, some enterprising gas stations put up signs selling gas for a dime a gallon. Of course, they wanted pre-1964, 90-percent silver dimes which had value in excess of a gallon of gas. If you were smart, you didn’t fall for it. You were better off keeping the coins to yourself." - Howard J. Ruff

Khalifah: The Need For Political Unity

Khalifah: The Need For Political Unity

Torture chamber found in mosque

Now don't go getting all excited. Doesn't your local church have a torture chamber? What's that? It doesn't? Well, okay, but there must be at least a room in the basement where they rough up heretics? No? But...but...well, at very least Father McGillicuddy has a pair of thumbscrews -- doesn't he? He doesn't? Well, then, uh, remember the Inquisition! And the Crusades!

"Chain wrapped around 'old man's body' found in mosque," by Arwa Damon for CNN, August 19 (thanks to all who sent this in):

BAGHDAD, Iraq (CNN) -- "There are the bloodstains on the wall, and here it is dried on the floor," says Abu Muhanad as he walks through a torture chamber in a Baghdad mosque where more than two dozen bodies have been found.

"And here, a woman's shoes. She was a victim of the militia. We found her corpse in the grave."

Chunks of hair waft lazily across the floor in the hot Baghdad breeze.

"This was the torture room," says Muhanad, the leader of a U.S.-backed armed group that now controls the mosque.

"This is what they used for hanging," he says, pointing to a cord dangling from the ceiling. "Here is a chain we found tied to an old man's body."

The horrific scene at this southwestern Baghdad mosque is what officials say was the work of a Shia militia known as the Mehdi Army. Residents who live near the mosque say they could hear the victims' screams.

The militia had been in control of the mosque, called Adib al-Jumaili, for at least a year and a half....

Hezbollah Signs Pact with Salafis

"But implementation to be decided later"

Amidst a growing world crisis, new developments in Lebanon may signal what lies ahead in the sphere of global jihadist forces in the near future. A memorandum of understanding has been signed by Hezbollah, the main pro-Iranian organization in the region, and a number of Salafist groups outlining efforts to "confront America."

Innocent minds may question how that impacts our lives. However, events that unfold in Beirut have a direct effect on the war on terror, or to be more precise, on the jihadist war on democracies. Here is why:

Sheikh Jalal Abualrub vs. David Wood: “Is Muhammad a Prophet?”

Ideological Blinders and Missed Opportunities in Counter-Radicalization

Jeffrey Imm’s recent broadside against myself, my colleague Michael Jacobson, The Washington Institute’s Stein Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence, West Point’s Counterterrorism Center, and the Quilliam Foundation is a poor reflection of the Counterterrorism Blog in its departure from the Blog’s tradition of civil and scholarly debate. Unfortunately, Imm’s blog is neither.

Contrary to Mr. Imm’s assertion that I criticized him in my July 17 post, that article barely mentioned him at all (and never in a derogatory tone) focusing instead on the substance at hand. In concluded, “While Mr. Imm is right that not every extremist or terrorist renouncing their former way of life is fully deradicalized, to dismiss all of them is not only short sighted, but risks missing valuable opportunities for the US and its allies.” Mr. Imm’s most recent post only underlines that conclusion.

But before I address the substantive issues, let me correct just two of Mr. Imm’s multiple factual errors.

In his post, Mr. Imm criticizes my colleague Michael Jacobson for citing Dr. Fadl as someone who has renounced terrorism in a recent article published in West Point CTC's publication "The Sentinel." Mr. Imm says that this is part of a broader pattern with the Washington Institute, accusing us of having a "consistently uncritical view" regarding those who claim to have left terrorism behind.

Mr. Imm's charges on this issue are badly off the mark. First, Mr. Imm has taken Mr. Jacobson's statements out of context to suggest that he has given Dr. Fadl the seal of approval. In his article, Mr. Jacobson was not citing Dr. Fadl's renunciation to indicate that he was persuaded that it was genuine. In fact, Mr. Jacobson was making a far different point -- that despite the positive attention heaped on Dr. Fadl and others who have publicly recanted, we do not know what the effect of these recantations will be on those currently in terrorist organizations. We need to understand this issue far better to design a successful and effective counterterrorism program. To take this very legitimate point and use it to "demonstrate" that the Institute is uncritical is quite disingenuous.

Mr. Imm's ideologically driven analysis is clear from the fact that he so readily dismisses the possible broader implications of Dr. Fadl's statements. Even if Dr. Fadl hasn't fully renounced all terrorism, it would still be very significant that one of the original founders of the Egyptian Islamic Jihad, a man on whom Bin Ladin and al Qaeda have relied to provide the ideological foundation for their takfiri ideology, is now recanting some of his former positions. Many analysts believe that his statements criticizing al Qaeda - along with those of other former clerics and terrorist leaders - are beginning to cause a real schism within the global jihadist community. How the US can take advantage of a possible fissure through its counterterrorism and counter-radicalization efforts is a critical and immediate question that Mr. Imm is far too quick to dismiss. While there is certainly room for skepticism about the ultimate ramifications, it is critical to at least consider the potential implications of these recent developments.

Mr. Imm took the liberty of quoting me out of context as well. Imm contends that I made “the incredible claim” that the way back from Islamism is through political salafists who have credibility when it comes to deradicalizing others. In fact, I noted that officials in the UK, the Netherlands and elsewhere have successfully leveraged even political salafists in their counter-radicalization efforts, even as they see these groups for what they are and recognize they still support some forms of extremism. Without accepting them, these governments are using them to their advantage. I noted this, concluding that “these are issues which bear further exploring”:

Another important question that needs to be asked, and one that has often been given short- shrift (including on this blog) is how to leverage the ideological fissures that develop between and among our adversaries -- even when the more moderate wing is still not as moderate as we would like them to be. In the UK, for example, a distinction is often made between "jihadi salafists" and "political salafists," with the government willing to work with some groups that fall into the latter category but none in the former. (For the record, Quilliam has come out against working with groups that fall into either category). Not only do the political salafists have credibility when it comes to deradicalizing others, but as the Dutch argue it may be better to keep them in the larger tent than drive them further underground. In addition, having recently spent time in the UK (as well as France and Holland), talking to counterterrorism officials and local community leaders, it is striking how concerned they are about the threat of an imminent attack. Against that background, it becomes more understandable why they're trying to find allies wherever they can. The British realize they may have significant differences with "political salafists" who think "resistance" in Palestine or Iraq is legitimate, but are thinking about ways that they can at least leverage them and their positions in an effort to de-radicalize the most severe extremists (taqfiris) randomly targeting civilians today.

Mr. Imm also ignored in his postings inconvenient truths. For example, Mr. Imm challenged Quilliam to reject Islamic supremacism, and when Mr. Nawaz did exactly that it went unacknowledged by Mr. Imm.

On the issue of substance, Mr. Imm confuses and conflates two separate issues. The question is not whether radical Islamic extremism is a problem, nor whether support for terrorism or political violence is acceptable in some circumstances but not in others - we’re all in agreement that suicide bombing in Israel or Iraq is just as barbaric, criminal and unacceptable as use of that tactic is in the UK or elsewhere. A review of the Institute’s Stein Program’s work on the subject speaks for itself, and is there for the general public and Mr. Imm to review, including our books, peer-reviewed academic articles, policy articles, editorials, and more.

Rather, the issue is how to leverage “political salafists” in our counter-radicalization campaigns when, unlike Quilliam, they are not fully moderate and do still support some forms of “jihad” or terrorism that we do not. We need not accept them to use them to our advantage, a cornerstone of traditional tradecraft.

Mr. Imm is correct to question how it is that analysts should go about assessing claims of moderation by Muslim groups, especially by former radicals. The answer, I submit once more, is that it requires something more than armchair analysis and research-by-Google. Mr. Imm notes that as a second generation British-American he has spent plenty of time in the UK. But time spent visiting cousins is not field research. How much of that time has Mr. Imm spent interviewing former Jihadists? How much of that time was spent in East or North London? How much time did Mr. Imm invest meeting with intelligence, law enforcement, or the Home Office? These types of meetings are key to understanding not only the terrorist threat, but what should be done to counter it. While Mr. Imm’s open source research is thorough, true scholarship must also include reviewing primary sources and conducting on the ground, first-hand field research. Mr. Imm may disagree with us based on articles he’s read online, but Mr. Jacobson and I feel reaching out to groups like Quilliam, and exploring ways to leverage fissures within the extremist community, are critical aspects of a successful counterterrorism strategy.

Islamic terror cell ‘may have been plotting to attack Queen’

Telegraph  

A terror cell caught with details of bomb-making and suicide vests may have been plotting to attack the Queen and members of the Royal family, it can be disclosed.

The cell, which included Britain’s youngest ever terrorist, arrested on his way home from his GCSE chemistry exam, was found with information about the Queen and the Duke of Edinburgh along with the Prince of Wales, the Duke of York, the Earl of Wessex and the Princess Royal.
(more…)

Philippines: “rogue Muslims” burn houses, slaughter civilians

More on this story. "Rogue Muslims raid villages," from Times Online, August 19:

Manila Muslim rebels in the Philippines attacked several towns, killing at least 26 people and displacing 7,000.

The raids triggered a swift military response and raised doubts over whether the guerrilla movement was in control of its fighters.

Up to 500 Moro Islamic Liberation Front rebels raided towns in Lanao del Norte province, burning houses and shooting or hacking civilians to death. Troops reacted with tanks and helicopter gunships. A rebel leader said that the attack was carried out without his knowledge.

Suicide bombers storm US base in Afghanistan

"Allah hath purchased of the believers their persons and their goods; for theirs (in return) is the garden (of Paradise): they fight in His cause, and slay and are slain..." (Qur'an 9:111)

"Suicide bombers try to storm American base," from Agence France-Presse, August 19 (thanks to JE):

SEVERAL Taliban suicide attackers tried to storm a US military base in eastern Afghanistan early today and at least six have been found dead, a provincial governor said.

NATO's International Security Assistance Force confirmed that a US military base in the eastern town of Khost, 30km from the border with Pakistan, was under attack but could give few details.

"We have heard about suicide bombers on foot. They are receiving indirect fire,'' an officer in the ISAF media office in Kabul said....

"According to our reports about 30 Taliban tried to attack the Salerno base. They were fired at. We have found six bodies which were all wearing suicide vests,'' he said.

"Some of them have blown themselves up. Others are hiding in nearby houses and corn fields. The troops are searching for them,'' he said....

The attackers had also launched rockets at the base, an Afghan army officer said on condition of anonymity.

The new attack comes a day after a suicide bombing outside Camp Salerno killed 10 Afghan labourers and wounded 13 more.

Security forces were able to prevent a second suicide attack moments later, the US-led coalition and Afghan officials said.

The Taliban claimed responsibility.

From Mormonism, to Islam, to Christianity: The Story of a Double Convert

Quilliam Foundation and Misdirection on Egypt’s Grand Mufti Ali Gomaa

In my July 16, 2008 article "False Reports of Jihadists 'Quitting' or Abandoning Islamic Supremacism," I challenged the Quilliam Foundation to address some key questions that were being asked about its organization. The primary issue I raised was its documented support for Egyptian Grand Mufti Sheik Ali Gomaa (also spelled "Ali Gum'a" or "Goma").

In reply, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy's Stein Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence Director Matthew Levitt criticized me on July 17 for asking this obvious question, and on August 15, that same organization's Michael Jacobson published a "response" to my July 16 article on behalf of Maajid Nawaz of the Quilliam Foundation.

Mr. Nawaz's comments in Mr. Jacobson's reposting "Quilliam Responds" are not a response at all, but are directed towards a July 30, 2008 letter from various senators to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice regarding "a 2003 article in Egypt's 'Al-Haqiqa' newspaper quoting Ali Goma defending terrorist acts in Israel." Mr. Nawaz dismisses this quote as he states it is coming from a "Wahabite-Islamist source" and "a newspaper that explicitly promotes a Shari'ah-law based Caliphate." (On the other hand, Mr. Nawaz does not explain how he defends Ali Gomaa who is interviewed in the March 2008 U.S. News and World Report as seeing Sharia as a solution for "Islamic extremism.")

Mr. Nawaz further defends Gomaa by referencing a July 21, 2007 Newsweek / Washington Post blog article where Gomaa seeks to define jihad with "a large category of meanings," and where Gomaa states that "Islam forbids suicide" and "Islam forbids aggression against others." (This did not stop Gomaa from defending the terrorist group Hezbollah, as he viewed Hezbollah attacks on Israel as a "defense of its country and not terrorism" and calling for support for Hezbollah as a "religious duty.")  On July 24, 2007, the Gulf News reported an update on Gomaa's comments to Newsweek / Washington Post regarding "apostasy," quoting Gomaa: "What I actually said is that Islam prohibits a Muslim from changing his religion and that apostasy is a crime, which must be punished."

Mr. Nawaz further dismisses criticism of Gomaa by using a ploy of playing on assumed political divisions: "[o]n the matter of support for Ali Goma, it seems rather ironic that right-wing critics share their worries over our stance, probably to their horror, with Marxists on the far-left such as the UK Guardian's Seamus Milne." Unfortunately those who think that criticism of Islamic supremacism is merely a right-left issue, fail to understand the issue and certainly fail to understand America's history in fighting supremacist ideologies. Mr. Nawaz should recognize that his experiences with the Nazi Combat 18 group were part of a continuing challenge against supremacist ideologies, and that the battle against supremacism beliefs will not be addressed by inconsistencies or by pandering to inaccurate assumptions about right-left political divisions.

The larger issue that my July 16 article raised is how can an organization that attacks political Islamism, such as Quilliam Foundation, support an individual as Egyptian Grand Mufti Sheik Ali Gomaa, which it calls a "Muslim scholastic giant," when there are numerous articles about Gomaa that would make him a questionable "scholar" to emulate?

A new regional order

“Thank God he’s resigned” — Pakistanis celebrate Musharraf’s downfall

Time to party

"The root cause of all problems has gone."

"Pakistanis jubilant over Musharraf's resignation," by Asim Tanveer for Reuters, August 18:

MULTAN, Pakistan (Reuters) - Pakistanis danced in the streets on Monday after beleaguered President Pervez Musharraf announced his resignation, with many ordinary people hoping his departure would bring improvement to their lives.

After ruling Pakistan single-handedly for nearly nine years, the former army chief and close ally of the United States announced his resignation in a televised address in the face of an impending impeachment by the ruling coalition government.

Lawyers, who have spearheaded an anti-Musharraf campaign since he tried to sack the chief justice last year, stormed out of courts in the southeastern city of Multan on hearing of Musharraf's resignation, shouting "Down with the American stooge."

"It's just like I'm celebrating my wedding," said lawyer Malik Naveed, dancing among a crowd of about 400 colleagues. [...]

Jaffar Shah, a retired soldier in the northwestern city of Peshawar, said: "The root cause of all problems has gone."

"I wish I could fire shots to show my joy but unfortunately I can't do that."

People in Karachi, the country's commercial capital, handed out sweets and danced in celebration.

"Thank God he's resigned. The country will do much better now. It's a victory for the people," said Mohammad Ilyas, 30....

Rick Warren Should Be Ashamed

Rick Warren's Saddleback Church hosted a political forum recently, inviting only two Presidential candidates. While I have no problem granting a forum to political candidates (Democrats routinely turn black churches into campaign stops), I do have a problem with Warren granting any legitimacy to Borat Obama and his evil politics. What's wrong with this picture? Obama is "amazing"?

Warren's watered-down gospel is suspicious to begin with, but creating the impression that Christians should actually consider voting for Obama is inexplicable. I don't want to speculate on Warren's motives, but followers of Jesus Christ should think very carefully before supporting him, buying his materials or attending his church.

It's a shame that a man of God with so much potential for good would mislead his flock in this way. Warren should vigorously denounce Obama at every opportunity. Simply being the nominee of the Democrat Party does not grant one automatic respect. Obama has to earn our respect, and he hasn't come anywhere close to getting mine.

Al Qaeda in Lebanon

Part of the three-part piece that I am writing for the Middle East Times on Al Qaeda's opportunistic strategy, I explored today Al Qaeda's alleged presence in Lebanon.
In case you missed the first part, you can read it here. You can read part 2 Al Qaeda in Gaza here.

Today's full article is here.
Here is an excerpt:

While Lebanese President Gen. Michel Suleiman was visiting Syrian President Bashar Assad, a terror attack hit Tripoli, Lebanon's second-largest city, killing 18 people, including nine soldiers and injuring over 40. It is still unclear who was behind this bloody attack, but fingers are pointing at Fatah al-Islam, the al-Qaida linked group that fought the Lebanese army in 2007 in the Palestinian camp of Nahr al-Bared. In fact Fatah al-Islam's leader, Shaker al-Absi, recently said he would target the military. But more than anything, it is the growing presence of al-Qaida in Lebanon that is worrying.

As early as 2006, Ahmed Fatfat, then Lebanese interior minister, revealed details about al-Qaida's presence in Lebanon.

Fatfat noted: "For the past 45 months, al-Qaeda has been trying to settle in Lebanon. The organization infiltrates combatants and recruits on the ground. We recently dismantled two groups suspected of belonging to this network. One month ago we stopped 13 individuals coming from various countries of the Middle East, who were preparing attacks inside the country. We also have just stopped five people implied in attacks against military positions."

Abou Fana Locals: Ad Hoc Committee Announced the Problem Was Solved Only to Be in the Spotlight

By  Said Nafie   

Abou Fana local residents’ lawyer Gamal Musaid said the declarations made by MP Alaa Hasanein and a businessman member of the so-called ad-hoc committee charged with solving the Abou Fana monastery problem were not true.
(more…)

Al Qaeda At 20: Some Thoughts

I think Peter Bergen's Outlook section piece in the Washington Post was very useful in looking at al Qaeda at 20. It is hard to believe they have been around that long.

Of particular to me is his discussion of the deep differences between Marc Sageman and Bruce Hoffman on the future of al Qaeda. After two decades the nature of the enemy, and how different parts relate to each other, are still in dispute.

Bergen got it right in explaining why the two views, although often presented as such, are not mutually exclusive. As with so much of how we view the new world and its complex and shifting networks and alliances, many in the policy community and intelligence communities want things to be one way or the other. Usually they are not.

This is true in large part because the enemy is constantly moving, realigning and reconfiguring, both in response to the internal dynamics within the groups, and to external pressures. Their Darwinian ability to adapt to survive, and the elimination of their weakest and least careful members, make the task of tracing them ever harder.

The groups will also undergo tests of trial and error (the biggest error, as Bergen points out, being al Qaeda in Iraq's impressive loss of support among the Sunni population because of its increasingly brutal tactics) that will lead to shifting behavior and thinking over time.

While al Qaeda Central, as Bergen and others call the old guard, no longer can exercise the direct command and control that had before, the demise of Al Qaeda in Iraq is largely a boon for bin Laden.

He now has foreign fighters flocking to areas where he exercises the most direct control, again making the core al Qaeda a vital reference point-personally, ideologically and theologically-to those movements.

This is ironic, as al Qaeda in a general sense has lost a great deal of sympathy around the world, as has the Taliban. State sponsorship, such as the Taliban received from Saudi Arabia and Pakistan prior to 9/11, is now considerably less and considerably more muted.

This lack of state sponsorship is one of the driving forces behind the growing ties of these groups to criminal activity. Only resources on the scale gleaned from drug trafficking can fund a significant army for any length of time. This is one of the reasons I feel so strongly that the alliance is both inevitable and incredibly dangerous. My full blog is here.